Pengembangan Strategi Peningkatan Produktivitas dan Produksi Kedelai Berbasis Teknologi Guna Mengurangi Impor menggunakan Simulasi Sistem Dinamik

Putra, R. Farel Danendra Hendrawan (2026) Pengembangan Strategi Peningkatan Produktivitas dan Produksi Kedelai Berbasis Teknologi Guna Mengurangi Impor menggunakan Simulasi Sistem Dinamik. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kedelai merupakan komoditas strategis dalam ketahanan pangan nasional, namun produksi dalam negeri tidak mampu memenuhi permintaan domestik sehingga ketergantungan impor sangat tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan merancang model simulasi sistem dinamik untuk merumuskan strategi peningkatan produktivitas dan produksi kedelai berbasis teknologi smart precision farming serta Perluasan Areal Tanam (PAT) guna mengurangi impor. Pengembangan model mengikuti metodologi sistem dinamik John Sterman’s yang meliputi tahapan problem articulation, dynamic hypothesis, formulation, testing, serta policy design and evaluation. Model dibangun menggunakan pendekatan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) dan Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) dengan perangkat lunak Vensim, model terdiri atas lima sub-model yang saling terintegrasi, yaitu Land and Production, Population and Demand, Cost and Economics, GDP and Affordability, dan Food Security Model terdiri atas lima sub-model terintegrasi dan telah tervalidasi melalui uji Mean Comparison (E1 ≤ 5%) serta Error Variance (E2 ≤ 30%) terhadap data historis 2010–2025. Enam skenario kebijakan disimulasikan pada periode 2026–2035. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa skenario Kombinasi PAT & Sprayer Drone merupakan strategi terbaik dengan produksi mencapai 1.870.230 Ton, penurunan impor sebesar 40,20%, dan indeks ketahanan pangan tertinggi sebesar 0,6731 pada tahun 2035. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa strategi terpadu yang menggabungkan ekstensifikasi lahan dan intensifikasi teknologi merupakan pendekatan paling efektif untuk mengurangi ketergantungan impor kedelai nasional.
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Soybean is a strategic commodity for national food security; however, domestic production is unable to meet domestic demand, resulting in a very high dependence on imports. This study aims to develop a system dynamics simulation model to formulate strategies for increasing soybean productivity and production based on smart precision farming technology and Planting Area Expansion (Perluasan Areal Tanam/PAT) to reduce imports. The model development follows John Sterman's system dynamics methodology, which encompasses the stages of problem articulation, dynamic hypothesis, formulation, testing, and policy design and evaluation. The model was constructed using a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) approach with Vensim software, consisting of five integrated sub-models: Land and Production, Population and Demand, Cost and Economics, GDP and Affordability, and Food Security. The model has been validated through Mean Comparison (E1 ≤ 5%) and Error Variance (E2 ≤ 30%) tests against historical data from 2010–2025. Six policy scenarios were simulated over the 2026–2035 period. The simulation results show that the PAT & Sprayer Drone Combination scenario is the best-performing strategy, with production reaching 1,870,230 tons, an import reduction of 40.20%, and the highest food security index of 0.6731 by 2035. This study concludes that an integrated strategy combining land extensification and technological intensification is the most effective approach to reducing national dependence on soybean imports.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Kedelai, Produksi, Produktivitas, Sistem Dinamik, Pertanian Presisi Cerdas.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation
Divisions:	Faculty of Information Technology > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	R. Farel Danendra Hendrawan Putra
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 06:11
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 06:11
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137127

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