Optimasi Sistem Distribusi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) Berbasis Kapal untuk Mendukung Keandalan Energi Di Pulau Bali Menggunakan Inventory Routinh Problem

Irvandi, Galih (2026) Optimasi Sistem Distribusi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) Berbasis Kapal untuk Mendukung Keandalan Energi Di Pulau Bali Menggunakan Inventory Routinh Problem. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sistem kelistrikan Bali menghadapi tekanan struktural beban puncak tumbuh 7% per tahun menuju 1.854 MW pada 2030 sementara cadangan daya hanya 17,3%. Ketergantungan pada Saluran Kabel Laut Tegangan Tinggi (SKLT) berkapasitas 270 MW sebagai satu-satunya interkoneksi dari Jawa memperparah kerentanan ini. Distribusi BBM menghadapi triple constraint yang saling mengunci: fasilitas penerima di pembangkit hanya mampu menerima kapal berkapasitas 2.000–4.000 KL sehingga diperlukan frekuensi pengiriman tinggi, namun kapasitas jetty enam depot Terminal Bahan Bakar Minyak (TBBM) telah beroperasi pada Berth Occupancy Rate (BOR) 0,86–0,95 yang melampaui ambang kritis 80% rekomendasi UNCTAD. Kondisi ini menyebabkan Hari Operasi Pembangkit (HOP) berada pada titik minimum 7 hari yang sangat rentan terhadap keterlambatan kapal maupun lonjakan kebutuhan BBM. Penelitian ini memformulasikan permasalahan distribusi BBM berbasis kapal sebagai Maritime Inventory Routing Problem (MIRP) — suatu model optimasi yang mengintegrasikan secara simultan keputusan routing pengiriman kapal dari enam depot TBBM ke tiga pembangkit listrik dan keputusan manajemen persediaan BBM di setiap pembangkit. Model yang diusulkan meliputi constraint kapasitas jetty depot sebagai faktor pembatas operasional kritis, dua moda pengiriman (armada kapal eksisting dan kapal charter), serta keputusan investasi kapasitas tangki penyimpanan sebagai variabel biner. Model diformulasikan sebagai Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) dengan variabel keputusan meliputi jumlah trip kapal per rute per periode, level persediaan bulanan dan keputusan investasi tangki, diselesaikan menggunakan solver Coin-or Branch and Cut (CBC) melalui antarmuka PuLP Python pada horizon perencanaan 60 bulan (Januari 2026–Desember 2030). Optimasi skenario dasar menghasilkan total biaya distribusi BBM sebesar Rp 5.423.893 juta selama 60 bulan — HSD Rp 5.063.017 juta (93,4%) dan MFO Rp 360.877 juta (6,6%) — dengan utilisasi armada K004 mencapai 100% dan tidak diperlukan investasi tangki tambahan. Analisis sensitivitas terhadap lima skenario mengkonfirmasi bahwa kapasitas jetty adalah binding constraint paling kritis: peningkatan permintaan 10% membutuhkan 93 trip charter darurat dengan kenaikan biaya +15,57%, sedangkan penambahan hanya 3 slot jetty menghemat Rp 467,47 miliar (−7,61%) dan mengurangi kebutuhan charter sebesar 86%.
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Bali's power system faces reinforcing structural peak load growing at 7% per year toward 1,854 MW by 2030 against a reserve margin of only 17.3%. Dependence on a 270 MW High Voltage Submarine Cable (SKLT) as the sole Java–Bali interconnection amplifies this vulnerability. Fuel oil distribution system faces a self-reinforcing triple constraint: receiving facilities at power plants can only accommodate vessels of 2,000–4,000 KL capacity, necessitating high delivery frequencies, yet the jetty capacity of six fuel terminal (TBBM) depots already operates at a Berth Occupancy Rate (BOR) of 0.86–0.95 — exceeding the UNCTAD. This condition causes the Plant Operating Days (HOP) to consistently reach its minimum of 7 days, leaving the system highly exposed to vessel delays and sudden surges in BBM demand triggered by SKLT disruptions. This study formulates the ship-based BBM distribution problem as a Maritime Inventory Routing Problem (MIRP) — an optimization model that simultaneously integrates vessel routing decisions from six TBBM depots to three power plants and BBM inventory management decisions at each power plant. The proposed model incorporates the jetty depot capacity constraint as a critical operational constraint, two modes of transport (the existing vessel fleet and chartered vessels), and investment decisions regarding storage tank capacity as binary variables. The model is formulated as a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem, with decision variables including the number of vessel trips per route per period, monthly inventory levels and tank investment decisions. It is solved using the Coin-or Branch and Cut (CBC) solver via the PuLP Python interface over a 60-month planning horizon (January 2026–December 2030). Base case optimization yields a total BBM distribution cost of IDR 5,423,893 million over 60 months — HSD at IDR 5,063,017 million (93.4%) and MFO at IDR 360,877 million (6.6%) — with K004 fleet utilization reaching 100% and no additional tank investment required. Sensitivity analysis across five scenarios confirms that jetty capacity is the most critical binding constraint: a 10% demand increase requires 93 emergency charter trips (+15.57% cost increase), while adding only 3 jetty slots saves IDR 467.47 billion (−7.61%) and reduces charter dependency by 86%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	optimasi, distribusi BBM dan LNG, kapal, MILP, inventory Inventory Routing Problem; fuel oil distribution; ship; Mixed Integer Linear Programming; inventory; energy reliability; jetty
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.6 Operations research--Mathematics. Goal programming
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Galih Irvandi
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 20:38
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 20:38
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137285

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