Analisis Mekanisme Transmisi Dampak Penuaan Populasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

Wedharga, Ni Made Ayu Maharani (2026) Analisis Mekanisme Transmisi Dampak Penuaan Populasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penuaan populasi telah menjadi isu demografis global yang berdampak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, termasuk Indonesia. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak penuaan populasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 34 provinsi Indonesia selama 2015–2024 menggunakan pendekatan dekomposisi pertumbuhan Lee & Shin (2021) yang membagi transmisi dampak menjadi enam saluran: modal fisik, modal manusia, jam kerja, partisipasi angkatan kerja, komposisi usia produktif, dan TFP. Metode yang digunakan adalah regresi data panel dengan dengan standar error Driscoll-Kraay untuk mengatasi permasalahan heteroskedastisitas, autokorelasi, dan ketergantungan antarunit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penuaan populasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melalui penurunan pertumbuhan PDRB per kapita akibat meningkatnya beban ketergantungan penduduk. Dampak tersebut terutama ditransmisikan melalui saluran komposisi usia produktif sebagai saluran paling dominan, di mana peningkatan OADR menurunkan proporsi penduduk usia kerja, serta melalui saluran modal fisik yang mendorong peningkatan investasi sebagai bentuk penyesuaian terhadap keterbatasan tenaga kerja. Sementara itu, saluran modal manusia, rata-rata jam kerja, tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja, dan TFP belum menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan selama periode penelitian. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pada tahap awal penuaan populasi di Indonesia, dampak ekonomi lebih banyak tercermin melalui perubahan struktur usia produktif dan penyesuaian akumulasi modal dibandingkan melalui perubahan produktivitas.
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Population aging has become a global demographic issue that affects economic growth, including in Indonesia. This study analyzes the impact of population aging on economic growth across 34 provinces in Indonesia during 2015–2024 using the growth decomposition approach developed by Lee & Shin (2021), which divides the transmission mechanisms into six channels: physical capital, human capital, working hours, labor force participation, productive-age composition, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The method employed is panel data regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to address heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and cross-sectional dependence issues. The results show that population aging has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia’s economic growth, reflected in lower per capita GRDP growth due to the increasing dependency burden borne by the working-age population. This impact is primarily transmitted through the productive-age composition channel as the most dominant channel, where an increase in the Old-Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) reduces the proportion of the working-age population, as well as through the physical capital channel, where aging encourages higher investment as an adjustment to labor constraints. Meanwhile, the human capital, average working hours, labor force participation, and TFP channels do not show significant effects during the study period. These findings indicate that, in the early stage of population aging in Indonesia, economic impacts are primarily reflected through changes in productive-age structure and capital accumulation adjustments rather than through changes in productivity.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penuaan Populasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Rasio Ketergantungan Usia Tua, Fungsi Produksi Cobb Douglas Population Aging, Economic Growth, Old-Age Dependency Ratio, Cobb Douglas Production Function
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB848 Demography. Population. Vital events > HB3711 Business cycles. Economic fluctuations H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB848 Demography. Population. Vital events H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC441 Macroeconomics.
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Developmental Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Ni Made Ayu Maharani Wedharga
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 03:05
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 03:05
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138705

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