Analisis Sensitivitas Investasi Community Center di Surabaya

Siahaan, Lyana Christine (2026) Analisis Sensitivitas Investasi Community Center di Surabaya. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perkembangan e-commerce dan perubahan preferensi konsumen telah mendorong transformasi properti komersial dari tempat berbelanja menjadi ruang yang menawarkan pengalaman dan interaksi sosial. Di sisi lain, ketidakpastian kondisi ekonomi makro meningkatkan risiko investasi sehingga pengembangan properti komersial yang padat modal memerlukan perencanaan finansial yang komprehensif. Salah satu strategi yang berkembang adalah redevelopment properti eksisting menjadi properti komersial modern, seperti community center, yang mengintegrasikan fungsi komersial dan ruang publik. Pendekatan ini diterapkan pada rencana redevelopment Jembatan Merah Plaza (JMP) Surabaya yang mengalami penurunan aktivitas komersial. Pengembangan JMP direncanakan memadukan area indoor dan outdoor sebagai sumber pendapatan dan ruang interaksi sosial. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis tingkat pengembalian investasi redevelopment JMP dan mengidentifikasi batas perubahan variabel arus kas. Analisis dilakukan melalui empat tahapan, yaitu penetapan variabel dan nilai (CAPEX, OPEX, pendapatan, pendanaan, masa investasi, dan nilai terminal), dilanjutkan dengan penyusunan arus kas terdiskonto, analisis capital budgeting, serta analisis sensitivitas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa proyek belum memenuhi tingkat pengembalian yang diharapkan dengan Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) sebesar 9,86% dan periode investasi 10 tahun. Perhitungan capital budgeting menghasilkan Net Present Value (NPV) tanpa nilai terminal sebesar -Rp316.545.003.622,00 dan dengan nilai terminal -Rp241.605.522.816,00. Karena NPV bernilai negatif, analisis Internal Rate of Return (IRR) dan Payback Period (PP) tidak diperlukan karena tidak memenuhi tingkat pengembalian investasi. Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa diperlukan penurunan biaya lahan sebesar 96% dari nilai awal untuk mencapai kondisi break-even. Kemudian peningkatan okupansi tenant menjadi 100%, perpanjangan periode investasi hingga 20 tahun, dan penurunan tingkat pengembalian pinjaman menjadi 0% tidak mampu menghasilkan kondisi break-even. Kondisi break-even hanya dapat dicapai melalui peningkatan harga sewa tenant sebesar 340,31% (setara dengan harga sewa Rp1.651.148,00/m2/bulan). Namun, skenario ini memerlukan analisis lebih lanjut untuk memperoleh seberapa mungkin asumsi tersebut terjadi.
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The growth of e-commerce and changing consumer preferences have transformed commercial properties from conventional shopping destinations to places that offer experiences and social interaction. At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainty has increased investment risk, making comprehensive financial planning essential for capital-intensive commercial property development. One emerging strategy is the redevelopment of existing properties into modern commercial developments, such as community centers, that integrate commercial functions with public spaces. This approach is proposed for the redevelopment of Jembatan Merah Plaza (JMP) in Surabaya, which has experienced declining commercial activity. The proposed development combines indoor revenue-generating spaces with outdoor social spaces. This study aims to evaluate the investment return of the proposed JMP redevelopment and identify the threshold of changes in cash flow variables. The analysis was conducted in four stages: determining the input variables and assumptions (CAPEX, OPEX, revenue, financing, investment period, and terminal value), preparing discounted project cash flow, performing capital budgeting, and conducting sensitivity analysis. The project does not achieve the required investment return under a 9.86% Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) and 10-year investment period. The capital budgeting analysis produces a Net Present Value (NPV) of -IDR 316,545,003,622.00 without terminal value and -IDR 241,605,522,816.00 with terminal value. Since the NPV is negative, further Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback Period (PP) analysis are unnecessary because the project has already failed to meet the required investment return. The sensitivity analysis shows that a 96% reduction in land acquisition cost is required to reach the break-even point. Meanwhile, increasing tenant occupancy to 100%, extending the investment period to 20 years, and reducing the loan interest rate to 0% are still insufficient to achieve break-even. The project reaches the break-even point only if tenant rental rates increase by 340.31% or equivalent to IDR 1,651,148.00/m2/month. However, further analysis is required to assess the probability of this financial scenario occurring.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisis Sensitivitas, Capital Budgeting, Community Center, Investasi, Properti Komersial, Capital Budgeting, Commercial Property, Community Center, Investment, Sensitivity Analysis.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Lyana Christine Siahaan
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2026 07:04
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2026 07:04
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139022

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