Pengembangan Model Sistem Dinamik Untuk Meningkatkan Profitabilitas Umkm Kayu Di Tulungagung (Studi Kasus: Ankayu)

Chalvani, Rafief (2026) Pengembangan Model Sistem Dinamik Untuk Meningkatkan Profitabilitas Umkm Kayu Di Tulungagung (Studi Kasus: Ankayu). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

UMKM kayu di Indonesia menjadi salah satu subsektor yang memiliki kontribusi signifikan terhadap perekonomian nasional, baik melalui produksi furnitur, kerajinan tangan, maupun segmen ekspor yang terus tumbuh, khususnya pada sektor produksi alat dapur, memiliki peran penting dalam penyerapan tenaga kerja dan penggerak ekonomi lokal. Namun, skala produksi yang kecil, fluktuasi harga bahan baku, keterbatasan modal, serta belum optimalnya pengelolaan produksi dan persediaan menyebabkan profitabilitas sulit dipertahankan secara berkelanjutan. Penulisan tugas akhir ini bertujuan mengembangkan model sistem dinamik untuk menganalisis dan meningkatkan profitabilitas UMKM kayu di Tulungagung dengan studi kasus UMKM Ankayu yang memproduksi berbagai alat dapur berbahan kayu. Model sistem dinamik dilakukan dengan mengidentifikasi faktor internal dan eksternal yang memengaruhi profitabilitas, seperti jumlah produk, biaya produksi, biaya operasional, persediaan bahan baku, permintaan, serta kondisi pasar. Tahapan penelitian meliputi identifikasi masalah, studi literatur, analisis variabel, pengumpulan data, penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), Stock Flow Diagram (SFD), formulasi model, dan simulasi. Validasi model dilakukan melalui uji struktural serta behavioral validation menggunakan Mean Comparison (E1) dan Percentage Error Variance (E2) dengan membandingkan hasil simulasi dan data aktual. Simulasi dijalankan dalam empat skenario: Do Nothing, Ekspansi Kanal Digital, Efisiensi Proses Produksi, dan Skenario Gabungan. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa Skenario Gabungan memberikan dampak paling optimal. Dengan menerapkan skenario ini, keuntungan UMKM meningkat secara signifikan hingga rata-rata Rp21,4 juta per bulan, sekaligus mendorong volume produksi melampaui batas kapasitas maksimum tanpa menimbulkan hambatan produksi (bottleneck). Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa memadukan strategi perluasan pasar digital dengan peningkatan efisiensi produksi merupakan langkah krusial yang dapat menjadi dasar pengambilan keputusan untuk meningkatkan keuntungan UMKM secara berkelanjutan.
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The wood industry in Indonesia is a subsector that significantly contributes to the national economy, both through the production of furniture and handicrafts, as well as the growing export segment, particularly in the kitchenware sector, which plays a crucial role in absorbing labor and driving the local economy. However, small production scales, fluctuating raw material prices, limited capital, and suboptimal production and inventory management make it difficult to maintain profitability sustainably. This final project aims to develop a dynamic system model to analyze and improve the profitability of wood-based MSMEs in Tulungagung, using the case study of Ankayu, a MSME that produces various wooden kitchenware. The dynamic system model is implemented by identifying internal and external factors that influence profitability, such as product quantity, production costs, operational costs, raw material inventory, demand, and market conditions. The research stages include problem identification, literature review, variable analysis, data collection, and preparation of a report. Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), Stock Flow Diagram (SFD), model formulation, and simulation. Model validation is carried out through structural tests andbehavioral validation use Mean Comparison (E1) andPercentage Error Variance (E2) by comparing simulation results with actual data. Simulations were run under four scenarios: Do Nothing, Digital Channel Expansion, Production Process Efficiency, and a Combined Scenario. The simulation results indicate that the Combined Scenario yields the most optimal impact. By implementing this scenario, MSME profitability increases significantly, reaching an average of IDR 21.4 million per month, while simultaneously driving production volume beyond maximum capacity without creating production bottlenecks. This study concludes that integrating digital market expansion strategies with improved production efficiency is a crucial step that can serve as a foundation for effective decision-making to enhance MSME profitability in a sustainable manner.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Profitabilitas, Produksi, Sistem Dinamik, Skenario Kebijakan, UMKM Kayu, Dynamic Systems, Profitability, Production, Policy Scenarios, Wood MSMEs.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Rafief Chalvani
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2026 05:02
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2026 05:02
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139549

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