Haka, Muhammad Hadi Marwan (2026) Analisis Komparatif Kinerja Ekspor Sektor Unggulan Industri Kelapa Sawit Dan Karet Terhadap Perekonomian Sumatera Selatan (Periode 2012-2024). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
![[thumbnail of 5033221079_Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf]](http://repository.its.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
5033221079_Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (6MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Struktur ekonomi Provinsi Sumatera Selatan rentan terhadap volatilitas harga global akibat ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditas primer. Penelitian ini menganalisis perbandingan kinerja ekspor kelapa sawit dan karet, dua komoditas unggulan dengan karakteristik struktur industri berbeda, serta pengaruhnya terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Sumatera Selatan periode 2012–2024, menggunakan data sekunder time series dengan metode Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), X-Model Performance Matrix, dan regresi Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Hasil RCA menunjukkan kontras nyata: karet memiliki rata-rata RCA 11,11 namun terjebak pada kategori Retreat (EPD) dan kuadran Kurang Potensial (X-Model), sedangkan kelapa sawit memiliki RCA rata-rata 0,43 akibat sebagian besar produksinya terserap industri pengolahan domestik, tetapi bergerak lebih adaptif pada dinamika pasar. Estimasi OLS menunjukkan ekspor kelapa sawit dan karet sama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB, dengan elastisitas masing-masing 0,11% dan 0,26% per 1% kenaikan ekspor. Namun, sensitivity analysis menunjukkan pengaruh ekspor kelapa sawit lebih stabil, sedangkan karet lebih rapuh dan kehilangan signifikansi saat satu observasi berpengaruh dikeluarkan. Uji kointegrasi Engle-Granger turut menunjukkan bukti hubungan jangka panjang yang lemah, sehingga hasil regresi diinterpretasikan sebagai hubungan asosiatif dalam periode pengamatan. Pemerintah daerah direkomendasikan mengakselerasi hilirisasi industri karet serta memperkuat integrasi kelembagaan logistik ekspor kelapa sawit guna menopang kontribusi ekonomi kedua komoditas.
=================================================================================================================================
The economic structure of South Sumatra Province is vulnerable to global price volatility due to its dependence on primary commodity exports. This study analyzes the comparative export performance of palm oil and rubber, two leading commodities with contrasting industrial structures, and their impact on South Sumatra's Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) for 2012–2024, using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), X-Model Performance Matrix, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. RCA results reveal a stark contrast: rubber averages an RCA of 11.11 yet remains trapped in the Retreat category (EPD) and Less Potential quadrant (X-Model), while palm oil averages 0.43, as most production is absorbed domestically before export, yet moves more adaptively within market dynamics. OLS estimation shows both exports positively and significantly affect GRDP, with elasticities of 0.11% (palm oil) and 0.26% (rubber) per 1% increase in exports. However, sensitivity analysis shows palm oil's effect is more stable, while rubber's is more fragile, losing significance when one influential observation is excluded. The Engle-Granger cointegration test indicates weak evidence of a long-run relationship, so results are interpreted as associative within the observation period. The regional government is recommended to accelerate rubber industry downstreaming and strengthen institutional logistics integration for palm oil exports to support both commodities' economic contribution.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Ekspor, Karet, Kelapa Sawit, Ordinary Least Squares, PDRB, Export, GRDP, Ordinary Least Squares, Palm Oil, Rubber. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC441 Macroeconomics. H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD9000 Agricultural industries |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Developmental Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Muhammad Hadi Marwan Haka |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Jul 2026 06:35 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Jul 2026 06:35 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139743 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |