Pemodelan dan Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Evaluasi Pendapatan Freight fowarding dengan Kebijakan Alokasi Kapasitas Kontrak-Spot

Sitepu, Jessica Caroline (2026) Pemodelan dan Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Evaluasi Pendapatan Freight fowarding dengan Kebijakan Alokasi Kapasitas Kontrak-Spot. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Industri freight forwarding berperan penting dalam mendukung perdagangan internasional, namun menghadapi ketidakpastian permintaan pengiriman dan fluktuasi tarif yang memengaruhi keputusan pembelian kapasitas. PT XYZ masih menerapkan kebijakan spot only, sehingga seluruh kebutuhan kapasitas dipenuhi melalui pasar spot. Strategi tersebut menyebabkan perusahaan rentan terhadap kenaikan tarif, ketidakstabilan laba, serta pemanfaatan kapasitas yang kurang optimal. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model network revenue management berbasis simulasi Monte Carlo sebagai pendukung keputusan pembelian dan pengalokasian kapasitas pada perusahaan freight forwarding dalam kondisi permintaan yang tidak pasti. Model dikembangkan dalam tiga tahap, yaitu penentuan kapasitas kontrak optimal (Layer 1), alokasi kapasitas kepada contract customer dan spot customer (Layer 2 Tahap 1), serta penentuan protection level berdasarkan fare class (Layer 2 Tahap 2). Simulasi dijalankan sebanyak 500 iterasi menggunakan distribusi normal hasil distribution fitting terhadap data historis permintaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kapasitas kontrak optimal sebesar 38 TEU pada Leg 1 dan 13 TEU pada Leg 2, dengan total kapasitas kontrak 51 TEU. Hasil alokasi kapasitas menunjukkan bahwa pada Leg 1 dialokasikan 27 TEU untuk contract customer dan 11 TEU untuk spot customer, sedangkan seluruh kapasitas Leg 2 dialokasikan kepada contract customer. Penerapan protection level menghasilkan expected profit sebesar $63.531 selama periode Januari–Juni, meningkat 6,67% dibandingkan kondisi eksisting sebesar $59.378. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa model yang dikembangkan mampu meningkatkan efektivitas pengelolaan kapasitas melalui kombinasi keputusan pembelian kapasitas kontrak, alokasi kapasitas, dan protection level, sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai decision support tool bagi perusahaan freight forwarding dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian permintaan.
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Freight forwarding plays a vital role in supporting international trade; however, it faces demand uncertainty and freight rate fluctuations that affect capacity purchasing decisions. PT XYZ currently adopts a spot-only policy, in which all capacity requirements are be fulfilled through the spot market. This strategy exposes the company to increasing freight rates, profit instability, and suboptimal capacity utilization. This study aims to develop a network revenue management model based on Monte Carlo simulation as a decision support tool for capacity purchasing and allocation decisions in freight forwarding companies operating under uncertain demand. The proposed model consists of three stages: determining the optimal contract capacity (Layer 1), allocating capacity between contract customers and spot customers (Layer 2 – Stage 1), and determining the protection level based on fare classes (Layer 2 – Stage 2). The simulation was conducted using 500 iterations with a normal distribution obtained through distribution fitting of historical demand data. The results indicate that the optimal contract capacity is 38 TEUs for Leg 1 and 13 TEUs for Leg 2, resulting in a total contract capacity of 51 TEUs. The capacity allocation results show that 27 TEUs were allocated to contract customers and 11 TEUs to spot customers on Leg 1, while the entire capacity of Leg 2 was allocated to contract customers. The implementation of the protection level generated an expected profit of $63,531 during the January–June period, representing a 6.67% increase compared to the existing condition of $59,378. These findings demonstrate that the proposed model improves the effectiveness of capacity management through the integration of contract capacity purchasing, capacity allocation, and protection level decisions, making it a valuable decision support tool for freight forwarding companies in managing demand uncertainty.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Alokasi Kapasitas, Freight Forwarding, Protection level, Revenue Management, Simulasi Monte Carlo Capacity Allocation, Freight Forwarding, Protection level, Revenue Management, Simulasi Monte Carlo
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE147.6 Transportation--Planning H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE564.A1 Shipping H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE566.F7 Freighters. Cargo ships
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Jessica Caroline Sitepu
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 04:19
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 04:19
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140542

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