Analisis Sistem Dinamik (SD) pada Rantai Pasok Biomassa Woodchip untuk Peningkatan Ketahanan dan Keberlanjutan Bahan Bakar Co-Firing

Irvanda, Yogi (2026) Analisis Sistem Dinamik (SD) pada Rantai Pasok Biomassa Woodchip untuk Peningkatan Ketahanan dan Keberlanjutan Bahan Bakar Co-Firing. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Peningkatan transisi energi berbasis Energi Baru Terbarukan (EBT) merupakan komitmen PT. PLN dalam mendukung pencapaian target Carbon Neutral 2060 melalui penerapan program co-firing biomassa pada PLTU existing. Namun implementasi co-firing masih menghadapi berbagai tantangan seperti ketahanan pasokan biomassa. Permasalahan ini juga dialami PLTU Anggrek yang belum mampu memenuhi target substitusi biomassa sebesar 10% atau sekitar 72 ton per hari. Kompleksitas hubungan antara permintaan (demand), pasokan (supply), harga (price), dan kebijakan (policy) dalam upaya pemenuhan target subtitusi akan dianalisa menggunakan Sistem Dinamik (System Dynamics) menggunakan Vensim 10. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) dan model System Dynamics (SD) yang mampu merepresentasikan perilaku sistem, serta merumuskan strategi kebijakan berkelanjutan untuk memperkuat ketahanan pasokan biomassa dan mendukung pencapaian target substitusi biomassa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan permintaan biomassa untuk co-firing secara langsung meningkatkan tekanan terhadap pasokan biomassa, sehingga membutuhkan kapasitas produksi, ketersediaan lahan, dan insentif pendukung yang memadai. Pertumbuhan pasokan yang berlebihan dan tidak diimbangi dengan pertumbuhan permintaan menyebabkan penurunan harga biomassa. Oleh karena itu, menjaga integrasi dan keseimbangan antara subsistem permintaan, pasokan, ekonomi, dan kebijakan menjadi hal yang penting untuk memastikan ketahanan dan keberlanjutan jangka panjang dalam pencapaian target substitusi biomassa sebesar 10%.
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The transition toward renewable energy constitutes a strategic commitment of PT. PLN to support the achievement of the Carbon Neutral 2060 target through the implementation of biomass co-firing programs in existing coal-fired power plants. However, the implementation of co-firing continues to face several challenges, particularly regarding the sustainability and reliability of biomass supply. This issue is also experienced by Anggrek Coal-Fired Power Plant, which has not yet achieved the targeted 10% biomass substitution rate, equivalent to approximately 72 tons per day. The complexity of interactions among demand, supply, price, and policy variables in achieving the biomass substitution target was analyzed using a System Dynamics approach. The research aims to develop a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a System Dynamics (SD) model capable of representing the system behavior, as well as formulating sustainable policy strategies to strengthen biomass supply re-silience and support the achievement of the biomass substitution target. The findings indicate that increasing biomass demand for co-firing directly intensifies pressure on biomass supply, requiring adequate production capacity, land availability, and supporting incentives. Excessive supply growth that is not balanced with demand growth leads to declining biomass prices. Therefore, maintaining integration and balance among the demand, supply, economic, and policy subsystems is essential to ensure the resilience and long-term sustainability of achieving the 10% biomass substitution target.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Rantai Pasok Biomassa, Sistem Dinamik, Co-firing, Biomass Supply Chain, System Dynamics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD56.25 Industrial efficiency--Measurement. Industrial productivity--Measurement.
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Yogi Irvanda
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 07:15
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 07:15
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140862

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