Insyirahman, Insyirahman (2026) Model Framework Terintegrasi Ketahanan Sistem Transportasi Gas Alam untuk Industri di Indonesia. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Sistem transportasi gas alam melalui pipa open access merupakan Complex Adaptive System (CAS) yang melibatkan interaksi dinamis antara produsen gas, perusahaan transporter, regulator, dan konsumen. Kompleksitas sistem dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi pasokan dan permintaan, mekanisme kontrak Ship-or-Pay (SOP), gangguan operasional, pandemi, konflik geopolitik, serta kebijakan transisi energi sehingga sulit dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan konvensional. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan Model Framework Terintegrasi Ketahanan Sistem Transportasi Gas Alam untuk Industri di Indonesia sebagai research artifact yang mengintegrasikan aspek teknis, operasional, bisnis, kontraktual, regulasi, dan strategi dalam satu kerangka pengambilan keputusan. Framework dikembangkan menggunakan Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) berbasis Industrial Organization Theory pada sistem pipa open access yang terdiri atas dua produsen gas, satu perusahaan transporter, satu regulator, dan dua konsumen industri. Model dibangun menggunakan 27 variabel dari 140 responden, diverifikasi dan divalidasi menggunakan data historis PT Pertamina Gas, kemudian dievaluasi melalui 100 replikasi Monte Carlo pada enam skenario. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan intensitas gangguan tidak mengubah kemampuan sistem dalam memenuhi volume kontrak gas, tetapi secara signifikan memperpanjang waktu pemenuhan kontrak dan menurunkan kinerja bisnis perusahaan transporter. Volume gas yang berhasil disalurkan tetap berada pada kisaran 35.141 MMSCF, sedangkan Export Tick meningkat dari 352,45 hari pada skenario Good-Cased #2 menjadi 1.016,04 hari pada skenario Worst-Cased #2. Mekanisme Ship-or-Pay (SOP) terbukti meningkatkan Business Resilience dengan tambahan profit sebesar USD 0,41 juta hingga USD 14,29 juta, serta mampu mempertahankan profitabilitas pada kondisi gangguan berat. Analisis juga menunjukkan bahwa shutdown merupakan faktor internal yang paling berpengaruh terhadap penurunan ketahanan sistem, sedangkan pandemi dan konflik geopolitik memperbesar dampak gangguan ketika terjadi secara bersamaan (compound crisis). Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, skenario Good-Cased #2 memiliki tingkat System Resilience sangat tinggi, sedangkan kedua skenario Worst-Cased berada pada kategori rendah. Kontribusi utama penelitian ini adalah pengembangan Model Framework Terintegrasi Ketahanan Sistem Transportasi Gas Alam yang mengintegrasikan Operational Resilience, Business Resilience, dan System Resilience ke dalam satu model terpadu berbasis Industrial Organization Theory dan Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation. Framework ini berfungsi sebagai Decision Support System (DSS) untuk mengevaluasi strategi operasi, bisnis, kontrak, mitigasi risiko, dan kebijakan regulator dalam meningkatkan keandalan operasi, efisiensi jaringan, ketahanan sistem transportasi gas, dan kinerja bisnis perusahaan transporter gas.
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The open-access natural gas transportation system is a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) involving dynamic interactions among gas producers, gas transportation companies, regulators, and industrial consumers. The complexity of the system is influenced by supply and demand fluctuations, Ship-or-Pay (SOP) contractual mechanisms, operational disruptions, pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, and energy transition policies, making it difficult to analyze using conventional approaches. This study aims to develop an Integrated Resilience Framework Model for Industrial Natural Gas Transportation Systems in Indonesia as a research artifact that integrates technical, operational, business, contractual, regulatory, and strategic aspects into a unified decision-making framework. The framework was developed using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) based on Industrial Organization Theory within an open-access gas pipeline system consisting of two gas producers, one gas transportation company, one regulator, and two industrial consumers. The model was developed using 27 variables derived from 140 respondents, verified and validated using historical operational data from PT Pertamina Gas, and subsequently evaluated through 100 Monte Carlo replications under six operational scenarios. The results indicate that increasing disruption intensity does not affect the system's ability to fulfill the contracted gas volume but significantly prolongs the contract fulfillment period and reduces the business performance of the gas transportation company. The delivered gas volume remained approximately 35,141 MMSCF across all scenarios, whereas the Export Tick increased from 352.45 days under the Good-Cased #2 scenario to 1,016.04 days under the Worst-Cased #2 scenario. The Ship-or-Pay (SOP) mechanism significantly enhanced Business Resilience, generating additional profits ranging from USD 0.41 million to USD 14.29 million, and enabled the company to maintain profitability under severe disruption scenarios. The analysis further revealed that shutdowns were the most influential internal factor contributing to the decline in system resilience, while pandemics and geopolitical conflicts substantially amplified system disruptions when occurring simultaneously as a compound crisis. Based on the simulation results, the Good-Cased #2 scenario achieved a Very High level of System Resilience, whereas both Worst-Cased scenarios were classified as Low. The primary contribution of this research is the development of an Integrated Resilience Framework Model for Natural Gas Transportation Systems, which integrates Operational Resilience, Business Resilience, and System Resilience into a unified framework based on Industrial Organization Theory and Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation. The proposed framework serves as a Decision Support System (DSS) for evaluating operational, business, contractual, risk mitigation, and regulatory strategies to enhance operational reliability, network efficiency, natural gas transportation system resilience, and the business performance of gas transportation companies.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Sistem Transportasi Gas Alam, Open Access Pipeline, Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation, Complex Adaptive System, Operational Resilience, Business Resilience, System Resilience, Decision Support System, Natural Gas Transportation System |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD7526 Model communities. Model industrial Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.5 Principal components analysis. Factor analysis. Correspondence analysis (Statistics) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA401 Mathematical models. |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 66105-Doctor of Technology Management (DMT) |
| Depositing User: | Insyirahman Insyirahman |
| Date Deposited: | 31 Jul 2026 07:55 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2026 07:55 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/141074 |
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