Analisis Keputusan Dalam Pemilihan Investasi Coal Dryer Pada PLTU X

Ananta, Pujo Satriya (2026) Analisis Keputusan Dalam Pemilihan Investasi Coal Dryer Pada PLTU X. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

PLTU X menghadapi tantangan penurunan nilai kalor batubara sebesar 40 kcal/kg per tahun yang diproyeksikan menyebabkan derating pembangkit dalam 10 tahun ke depan. Implementasi teknologi coal dryer merupakan salah satu solusi untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, namun pemilihan teknologi yang tepat melibatkan ketidakpastian parameter finansial dan preferensi pengambil keputusan yang tidak dapat diabaikan. Penelitian ini mengintegrasikan Decision Analysis untuk menganalisis pemilihan investasi teknologi coal dryer pada PLTU X. Tahapan penelitian diawali dengan identifikasi alternatif teknologi secara global dan Critical Factor Analysis untuk menyaring alternatif, dilanjutkan dengan Kajian Kelayakan Operasional untuk mengevaluasi kesesuaian teknologi terhadap kondisi operasi PLTU X, serta pemodelan Incremental Cash Flow. Selanjutnya, dilakukan pemodelan keputusan untuk menstrukturkan permasalahan keputusan, simulasi Monte Carlo untuk mengkuantifikasi ketidakpastian parameter finansial, serta Single Attribute Expected Utility dalam kerangka Decision Analysis untuk mempertimbangkan preferensi dan sikap risiko pengambil keputusan. Hasil Critical Factor Analysis menyaring sembilan kandidat teknologi hasil identifikasi secara global menjadi dua alternatif, yaitu Teknologi Coal Dryer A dan Teknologi Coal Dryer B. Kajian Kelayakan Operasional menunjukkan bahwa keduanya tidak memenuhi kriteria pemanfaatan waste heat energy PLTU X secara terintegrasi, sehingga evaluasi finansial dilanjutkan dengan asumsi instalasi stand-alone. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan kedua alternatif layak secara finansial, dengan Coal Dryer A menghasilkan NPV Rp3,77 triliun, IRR 102%, dan Payback Period 2,28 tahun, sedangkan Coal Dryer B menghasilkan NPV Rp2,00 triliun, IRR 35%, dan Payback Period 5,02 tahun. Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan eskalasi harga batubara MRC dan LRC sebagai parameter paling berpengaruh terhadap NPV. Simulasi Monte Carlo menunjukkan Coal Dryer A memiliki Expected NPV lebih tinggi (Rp3,82 triliun) dengan Coefficient of Variation lebih rendah (45,06%) dibandingkan Coal Dryer B (Rp1,95 triliun; CV 86,75%), serta memenuhi kondisi First-Order Stochastic Dominance terhadap Coal Dryer B. Hasil perhitungan Expected Utility mengonfirmasi keunggulan Coal Dryer A (0,8751) dibandingkan Coal Dryer B (0,6055). Berdasarkan keseluruhan analisis, Teknologi Coal Dryer A direkomendasikan sebagai alternatif investasi yang paling sesuai untuk diimplementasikan pada PLTU X.
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PLTU X faces the challenge of a decline in coal calorific value of 40 kcal/kg per year, which is projected to cause plant derating within the next 10 years. The implementation of coal dryer technology is one solution to address this issue; however, selecting the appropriate technology involves uncertainty in financial parameters and decision-maker preferences that cannot be disregarded. This research integrates Decision Analysis to analyze the investment selection of coal dryer technology at PLTU X. The research stages begin with the global identification of technology alternatives and Critical Factor Analysis to screen the alternatives, followed by an Operational Feasibility Study to evaluate the suitability of the technology to the operating conditions of PLTU X, as well as Incremental Cash Flow modeling. Subsequently, decision modeling is conducted to structure the decision problem, followed by Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the uncertainty of financial parameters, and Single Attribute Expected Utility within the Decision Analysis framework to account for the decision-maker's preferences and risk attitude. The results of the Critical Factor Analysis narrowed nine candidate technologies from the global identification down to two alternatives, namely Coal Dryer Technology A and Coal Dryer Technology B. The Operational Feasibility Study showed that neither alternative met the criteria for integrated waste heat energy utilization at PLTU X, so the financial evaluation proceeded under a stand-alone installation assumption. The evaluation results showed that both alternatives were financially feasible, with Coal Dryer A generating an NPV of IDR 3.77 trillion, an IRR of 102%, and a Payback Period of 2.28 years, while Coal Dryer B generated an NPV of IDR 2.00 trillion, an IRR of 35%, and a Payback Period of 5.02 years. The sensitivity analysis showed that the escalation of MRC and LRC coal prices were the parameters most influential on NPV. The Monte Carlo simulation showed that Coal Dryer A had a higher Expected NPV (IDR 3.82 trillion) with a lower Coefficient of Variation (45.06%) compared to Coal Dryer B (IDR 1.95 trillion; CV 86.75%), and satisfied the condition of First-Order Stochastic Dominance over Coal Dryer B. The Expected Utility calculation confirmed the superiority of Coal Dryer A (0.8751) over Coal Dryer B (0.6055). Based on the overall analysis, Coal Dryer Technology A is recommended as the most suitable investment alternative for implementation at PLTU X.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Decision Analysis, Incremental Cash Flow, Coal Dryer, PLTU, Derating, Monte Carlo Simulation, Expected Utility
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.6 Operations research--Mathematics. Goal programming
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Pujo Satriya Ananta
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2026 07:01
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2026 07:01
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/141219

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