Penentuan Waktu Tanam Optimal Padi dan Jagung Berdasarkan Prediksi Ketinggian Air Sungai Menggunakan Model Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (Studi Kasus Daerah Rambipuji)

Prawira, Alka Sidik (2026) Penentuan Waktu Tanam Optimal Padi dan Jagung Berdasarkan Prediksi Ketinggian Air Sungai Menggunakan Model Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (Studi Kasus Daerah Rambipuji). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Intensitas dan frekuensi hujan semakin meningkat akibat perubahan iklim. Peningkatan ini mengancam produktivitas hasil panen tanaman, khususnya tanaman padi dan jagung. Kedua komoditas tersebut memiliki periode kritis pertumbuhan, sehingga gangguan pada periode tersebut dapat mematikan tanaman. Salah satu gangguan berupa banjir atau genangan dengan ketinggian melebihi ukuran tanaman. Untuk memitigasi gangguan tersebut, penanaman tanaman dapat mempertimbangkan waktu tanam yang aman. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi dan menentukan jadwal tanam dengan memanfaatkan perpaduan antara model prediksi yang menentukan curah hujan di masa depan dan model simulasi Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) yang dapat menentukan ketinggian genangan dari masukan curah hujan. Hasil ketinggian genangan kemudian dikonversi ke banjir melalui syarat ketinggian lebih dari 30 cm dan jangka waktu 10 hari. Apabila terjadi banjir dengan syarat tersebut, maka tanaman berpotensi besar mengalami kematian. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa terjadi banjir dengan resiko tinggi pada 6 bulan di masa depan pada wilayah Kecamatan Rambipuji, penanaman disarankan tidak dilakukan pada pertengahan bulan Februari hingga pertengahan bulan Maret karena kejadian banjir. Dengan penentuan tersebut, resiko kerugian akibat cuaca pada penanaman dapat diminimalisir.
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The intensity and frequency of rainfall are increasing as a result of climate change. This increase threatens crop yields, particularly for rice and maize. Both crops have critical growth periods, meaning that any disruption during these periods can be fatal to the plants. One such disruption is flooding or waterlogging where the water level exceeds the height of the plants. To mitigate such disruptions, farmers can take safe planting times into account. This study aims to evaluate and determine a planting schedule by utilising a combination of a predictive model that forecasts future rainfall and a Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) simulation model capable of determining water depth based on rainfall inputs. The resulting water depth is then converted to flood status using the criteria of a depth exceeding 30 cm and a duration of 10 days. hould flooding occur under these conditions, crops are at high risk of death. The results indicate a high risk of flooding over the next six months in the Rambipuji sub-district; planting is therefore not recommended from mid-February to mid-March due to the likelihood of flooding. By adhering to this recommendation, the risk of weather-related losses during the planting season can be minimised.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Banjir, Perubahan Iklim, Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation, Waktu tanam, Climate Change, Flood, Planting Season, Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q325.5 Machine learning. Support vector machines. S Agriculture > SB Plant culture T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC530 Flood control
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Alka Sidik Prawira
Date Deposited:	03 Aug 2026 01:54
Last Modified:	03 Aug 2026 02:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/141915

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