Analisis Pengaruh Financial Technology (Fintech) Sebagai Alat Pembayaran Digital Terhadap Agregat Moneter di Indonesia dengan Metode Error Correction Model (ECM)

Asacha, Syahwalia (2026) Analisis Pengaruh Financial Technology (Fintech) Sebagai Alat Pembayaran Digital Terhadap Agregat Moneter di Indonesia dengan Metode Error Correction Model (ECM). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perkembangan financial technology (fintech) sebagai alat pembayaran digital telah mengubah pola transaksi masyarakat dan berpotensi memengaruhi dinamika agregat moneter di Indonesia. Selain perkembangan fintech, agregat moneter juga dipengaruhi oleh kondisi makroekonomi, seperti inflasi, BI Rate, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh financial technology terhadap agregat moneter (M1) di Indonesia dengan mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor makroekonomi sebagai variabel kontrol. Data yang digunakan merupakan data time series bulanan periode Januari 2021 hingga Oktober 2025 yang diperoleh dari publikasi resmi Bank Indonesia dan Badan Pusat Statistik. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, nilai transaksi uang elektronik dan QRIS berpengaruh positif terhadap jumlah uang beredar (M1), sedangkan inflasi sebagai variabel kontrol juga menunjukkan hubungan positif terhadap perubahan jumlah uang beredar. Koefisien Error Correction Term (ECT) sebesar -0,476027 dan signifikan secara statistik menunjukkan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang, di mana sekitar 47,60% ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek akan dikoreksi pada periode berikutnya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perkembangan pembayaran digital, khususnya melalui uang elektronik dan QRIS, memiliki keterkaitan dengan perubahan agregat moneter di Indonesia. ====================================================================================================================================
The development of financial technology (fintech) as a digital payment instrument has transformed transaction patterns and may influence monetary aggregates in Indonesia. In addition to fintech development, monetary aggregates are also affected by macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation, the BI Rate, and the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar. This study aims to analyze the effect of financial technology on the narrow money supply (M1) in Indonesia while controlling for macroeconomic factors. The study employs monthly time series data from January 2021 to November 2025 obtained from official publications of Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). In the short run, electronic money transactions and QRIS transactions have a positive effect on M1, while inflation, included as a control variable, also exhibits a positive relationship with changes in M1. Furthermore, the Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient of -0.476027 is statistically significant, indicating the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. The coefficient implies that approximately 47.60% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected in the subsequent period. Overall, the findings suggest that the increasing adoption of digital payment instruments, particularly electronic money and QRIS, is associated with changes in Indonesia's monetary aggregates.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Aggregat Moneter, ECM, Financial Technolgy , Uang Beredar
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Syahwalia Asacha
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2026 01:43
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2026 01:44
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/142240

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