Marssheila, Hera Dian (2026) Pengaruh Subsidi Strategis Terhadap Viabilitas Ekonomi Jangka Panjang Rantai Pasok LNG Domestik Menggunakan Pendekatan System Dynamics. Other thesis, Insitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Ketetapan harga LNG domestik yang dibatasi maksimum sebesar 14,5% Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) ditujukan untuk menjaga keterjangkauan harga listrik. Namun, tren penurunan ICP menyebabkan harga LNG yang ditetapkan semakin tidak mencerminkan biaya aktual rantai pasok LNG. Permasalahan ini menjadi semakin signifikan pada wilayah dengan permintaan gas skala kecil hingga menengah yang memiliki biaya logistik tinggi, serta ketersediaan infrastruktur yang belum merata. Kondisi tersebut berpotensi mengurangi viabilitas ekonomi pemasok LNG domestik dan menimbulkan trade-off antara keberlanjutan rantai pasok, biaya pengadaan energi PLN, dan beban fiskal pemerintah. Dengan itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana skenario subsidi pemerintah dapat memengaruhi keputusan dalam mendistribusikan LNG, terutama dalam hal keekonomian jangka panjang agar aturan dapat terpenuhi. Studi kasus difokuskan pada distribusi LNG menuju empat pembangkit listrik dengan permintaan yang bervariasi. Pendekatan System Dynamics digunakan untuk memodelkan dan mensimulasikan hasil optimisasi logistik sebagai baseline model meliputi supply-demand analysis, route and vessel optimization menggunakan set partitioning formulation, perhitungan biaya pembentuk LNG, hingga menilai efektivitas penerapan empat skenario, serta dampak keekonomiannya hingga 10 tahun mendatang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan skema pembiayaan bundling terbukti lebih menguntungkan untuk mengurangi disparitas harga LNG antarpembangkit. Namun tanpa adanya subsidi, masih terdapat selisih dibandingkan dengan harga LNG ICP di tahun terakhir proyek maupun rata-rata harga selama masa proyek. Implementasi contract bundling (centralized) yang didukung Government Investment Subsidy merupakan skenario kebijakan subsidi yang paling strategis untuk berkelanujutan dalam meningkatkan keekonomian LNG, memenuhi target harga berbasis ICP, sekaligus meminimalkan kebutuhan subsidi pemerintah dibandingkan skenario Partial Fuel Subsidy maupun Gap Funding Subsidy pada contract non-bundling (decentralized).
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The domestic LNG pricing policy, which caps the maximum LNG price at 14.5% of the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), is intended to maintain electricity affordability. However, the declining trend of the ICP caused the regulated LNG price to increasingly diverge from the actual costs incurred along the LNG supply chain. This issue becomes more significant in regions with small to medium scale gas demand, where logistics costs are relatively high and supporting infrastructure remains unevenly developed. As a result, the economic viability of domestic LNG suppliers may be compromised, creating a trade-off between supply chain sustainability, PLN energy procurement costs, and the government fiscal burden. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how different government subsidy scenarios influence LNG distribution decisions, particularly in terms of achieving long-term economic viability while ensuring compliance with the regulated LNG pricing policy. The case study focuses on LNG distribution to four power plants with varying demand levels. A System Dynamics approach is employed to model and simulate the optimized logistics baseline, encompassing supply–demand analysis, route and vessel optimization using a set partitioning formulation, LNG cost component analysis, and evaluation of four policy scenarios and their long-term economic impacts over a ten year. The results demonstrate that the contract bundling (centralized) scheme is more profitable in reducing LNG price disparities among power plants. Nevertheless, without government intervention, the resulting LNG price remains above both the ICP-based price cap at the end of the project period and the average ICP-based price throughout the project lifetime. Among the evaluated alternatives, the implementation of contract bundling (centralized) supported by a Government Investment Subsidy is identified as the most strategic for sustainability policy scenario. This approach improves the long-term economic viability of the domestic LNG supply chain, ensures compliance with the ICP-based pricing policy, and minimizes government subsidy requirements compared with the Partial Fuel Subsidy and Gap Funding Subsidy schemes implemented under the contract non-bundling (decentralized).
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