Prioritisasi Kebijakan Bisnis Operasi Gas Alam Menggunakan Pendekatan System Dynamics dan Analytical Network Process

Nugroho, Bayu Rizky (2026) Prioritisasi Kebijakan Bisnis Operasi Gas Alam Menggunakan Pendekatan System Dynamics dan Analytical Network Process. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Lapangan Donggi Matindok, dioperasikan PT Pertamina EP di Sulawesi Tengah, menghadapi dua tekanan, penurunan cadangan gas secara alami dan keputusan investasi sebelum kontrak PSC berakhir 2035. Kajian terdahulu umumnya mengevaluasi kebijakan operasional lapangan gas menggunakan NPV statis atau pembobotan kriteria terpisah, tanpa mengintegrasikan dinamika umpan balik sistem dengan penilaian multi-kriteria pakar. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprioritaskan tiga alternatif kebijakan bisnis, yaitu Cost Optimization, Lifting Efficiency, dan Development & Exploration, melalui integrasi System Dynamics (SD) dan Analytical Network Process (ANP). Model SD dibangun dalam Vensim PLE dengan empat subsistem (cadangan, produksi, investasi, finansial), mencakup tiga belas feedback loop dan disimulasikan pada horizon 2026-2035 menggunakan tiga skenario sensitivitas struktural. Validasi model dilakukan melalui uji struktural (boundary adequacy, structure verification, dimensional consistency) dan uji perilaku kuantitatif menggunakan Welch Confidence Interval dan MAPE. Model ANP dikonstruksi dalam Super Decisions dengan empat klaster kriteria (Finansial, Investasi, Produksi, Operasional), inner dependence antar kriteria, diagregasi dari 13 responden praktisi senior melalui geometric mean. SD menempatkan Cost Optimization di posisi pertama (NSC harga jual = 2.45), Lifting Efficiency kedua (NSC = 1.32) dan Development & Exploration ketiga (uplift NPV +13.3% dari baseline USD 390.27 juta). ANP menghasilkan urutan berbeda, Development & Exploration pertama (46.43%), Lifting Efficiency kedua (30.32%), Cost Optimization ketiga (23.25%). Konvergensi terjadi hanya di posisi kedua, di mana Lifting Efficiency konsisten pada kedua metode. Divergensi di posisi pertama adalah konsekuensi struktural, SD membebankan CAPEX USD 330.37 juta dalam horizon yang hanya menangkap empat dari tiga belas tahun plateau produksi. Development & Exploration ditetapkan sebagai prioritas akhir karena penilaian expert ANP mengakomodasi perspektif full lifecycle yang relevan bagi keputusan investasi jangka panjang di industri hulu migas.
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Donggi Matindok Field, operated by PT Pertamina EP in Central Sulawesi, faces two simultaneous pressures, natural reservoir decline and investment decisions that must be resolved before the PSC contract expires in 2035. Prior studies have typically evaluated upstream gas field policies using static NPV analysis or standalone multi criteria weighting, without integrating system feedback dynamics and expert multi-criteria judgment within a unified framework. This study aims to prioritize three business policy alternatives, Cost Optimization, Lifting Efficiency, and Development & Exploration, through the integration of System Dynamics (SD) and Analytical Network Process (ANP).
The SD model was constructed in Vensim PLE across four subsystems (reserves, production, investment, financial), incorporating thirteen feedback loops, and simulated over a 2026-2035 horizon using three structural sensitivity scenarios. Model validation covered structural tests (boundary adequacy, structure verification, dimensional consistency) and quantitative behavioral tests using Welch Confidence Interval and MAPE. The ANP model was built in Super Decisions with four criteria clusters (Financial, Investment, Production, Operational), inner dependence at the criteria level, and aggregated from 13 senior practitioner respondents via geometric mean.
SD ranks Cost Optimization first (NSC price = 2.45), Lifting Efficiency second (NSC = 1.32), and Development & Exploration third (NPV uplift +13.3% from baseline USD 390.27 million). ANP produces a different order, Development & Exploration first (46.43%), Lifting Efficiency second (30.32%), Cost Optimization third (23.25%). Both methods converge only at second rank, where Lifting Efficiency is consistent across both. Divergence at first rank is a structural consequence, the SD model charges the full USD 330.37 million CAPEX within a horizon that captures only four of thirteen production plateau years. Development & Exploration is recommended as the final priority because ANP expert judgment accommodates a full lifecycle perspective more relevant to long term investment decisions in the upstream oil and gas industry.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	System Dynamics, Analytical Network Process, Gas Alam, Kebijakan Bisnis, Lapangan Migas, Natural Gas, Business Policy, Oil and Gas Field
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.28 Planning. Business planning. Strategic planning.
Divisions:	Faculty of Business and Management Technology > Management Technology > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Bayu Rizky Nugroho
Date Deposited:	03 Aug 2026 02:03
Last Modified:	03 Aug 2026 02:03
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/142933

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