Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Berbasis Cellular Automata di Kawasan Surabaya Barat

Nadif, Muhammad Haykal (2026) Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Berbasis Cellular Automata di Kawasan Surabaya Barat. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kawasan Surabaya Barat mengalami pertumbuhan penduduk paling pesat di Kota Surabaya (11,71% selama 2015–2025), mendorong konversi lahan non-terbangun menjadi kawasan terbangun secara masif yang berdampak pada ketidakteraturan tata kota dan peningkatan fenomena Urban Heat Island. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi perubahan penggunaan lahan pada tahun 2050 menggunakan model Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN). Adapun tahapan yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini mencakup analisis perubahan lahan tahun 2014-2026 di kawasan penelitian menggunakan analisis overlay. Mengidentifikasi faktor pendorong perubahan penggunaan lahan menggunakan metode delphi. Kemudian, hasil analisis tersebut digunakan sebagai dasar untuk melakukan pemodelan perubahan lahan dengan metode CA-ANN. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa selama 2014–2026, Lahan Pertanian & Tambak mengalami penurunan terbesar (1.468,17 ha), sementara Kawasan Peruntukan Industri (760,32 ha), Kawasan Perdagangan dan Jasa (427,68 ha), dan Kawasan Perumahan (204,93 ha) mengalami peningkatan signifikan. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perubahan penggunaan lahan berhasil diidentifikasi melalui konsensus ahli, dengan tambahan faktor baru seperti jarak ke kawasan perumahan eksisting, jarak ke jaringan listrik, dan jarak ke halte. Validasi model menunjukkan akurasi sangat tinggi (Overall Accuracy 96,92% dan Kappa Overall 0,95686). Prediksi tahun 2050 menunjukkan peningkatan Kawasan Peruntukan Industri (254,60 ha) dan Kawasan Perumahan (400,85 ha), serta penurunan Lahan Kosong (481,39 ha) dan Lahan Perikanan (227,69 ha), dengan pola spasial yang membentuk wilayah utara sebagai zona industri dan wilayah tengah sebagai zona hunian dan komersial. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan perlindungan berkelanjutan terhadap ruang terbuka hijau, penyesuaian rencana tata ruang untuk kawasan industri, pembangunan infrastruktur proaktif, penyediaan perumahan terjangkau, serta pemantauan evaluasi periodik untuk mendukung perencanaan tata ruang yang adaptif dan berkelanjutan.
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West Surabaya experienced the highest population growth in Surabaya City (11.71% during 2015–2025), driving extensive conversion of non-built-up land into built-up areas, which has contributed to unplanned urban expansion and the intensification of the Urban Heat Island phenomenon. This study aims to predict land use change in West Surabaya by 2050 using the Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN) model. The research consisted of three main stages: (1) analyzing land use change between 2014 and 2026 through overlay analysis, (2) identifying the driving factors of land use change using the Delphi method, and (3) developing a land use change model using the CA–ANN approach based on the results of the previous analyses. The findings indicate that between 2014 and 2026, Vacant Land experienced the greatest decrease (1,025.19 ha), followed by Aquaculture Areas (442.98 ha), while Industrial Areas (760.32 ha), Commercial and Service Areas (427.68 ha), and Residential Areas (204.93 ha) showed significant increases. The driving factors influencing land use change were identified through expert consensus, with additional factors including proximity to existing residential areas, electricity networks, and bus stops. Model validation demonstrated very high predictive performance, achieving an Overall Accuracy of 96.92% and an Overall Kappa coefficient of 0.95686. The 2050 simulation predicts continued expansion of Residential Areas (400.85 ha) and Industrial Areas (254.60 ha), accompanied by decreases in Vacant Land (481.39 ha) and Aquaculture Areas (227.69 ha). Spatially, future development is projected to concentrate industrial activities in the northern part of West Surabaya, while residential and commercial development will be predominantly concentrated in the central area. Based on these findings, this study recommends strengthening the protection of green spaces, adjusting spatial planning policies for industrial development, implementing proactive infrastructure planning, providing affordable housing, conducting regular monitoring and evaluation to support adaptive and sustainable urban planning.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Perubahan penggunaan lahan, Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network, Surabaya Barat, Sistem Informasi Geografis, land use change, Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN), West Surabaya, Geographic Information System (GIS)
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Regional & Urban Planning > 35201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Haykal Nadif
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2026 01:09
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2026 01:09
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143742

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