Prayogo Kukuh, Rindiarto (2026) Analisis Dampak Penetrasi Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Terhadap Fleksibilitas Sistem Tenaga Listrik Jawa Madura Bali (Jamali) Menggunakan Metode Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Guna mencapai target carbon neutral tahun 2060, Indonesia berencana menambah kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan sebagaimana tercantum dalam Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) 2025 – 2034. Dalam RUPTL, terdapat rencana penambahan kapasitas pembangkit Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) (energi angin dan surya). Sifat intermiten pembangkit VRE berdampak pada penjadwalan pembangkit yang disebut Unit Commitment (UC) – Economic Dispatch (ED) sehingga integrasinya ke sistem tenaga listrik salah satunya Jawa Madura Bali (JAMALI) menjadi tantangan. Maka dari itu diperlukan analisis dampak penetrasi VRE terhadap fleksibilitas sistem tenaga listrik JAMALI. Penelitian ini membahas pengaruh penambahan kapasitas VRE berdasarkan proyeksi RUPTL 2025 – 2034 terhadap perubahan profil beban dan ramping rate sistem tenaga listrik JAMALI di tahun 2025 – 2034. Menggunakan metode optimalisasi Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP), simulasi program UC – ED dijalankan pada dua skenario pengujian yaitu kondisi eksisting tanpa ada penambahan kapasitas VRE dan kondisi proyeksi RUPTL yang terdiri dari dua skenario yaitu Renewable Energy (RE) Base dan Accelerated Renewable Energy Develepoment (ARED) Base. Hasil simulasi UC – ED menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan penetrasi VRE dari tahun 2025 – 2034 menurunkan net load dan meningkatkan kebutuhan ramping rate beban. Penurunan net load tidak sampai menyentuh batas bawah Technical Minimum Loading (TML) dan peningkatan kebutuhan ramping rate beban tidak sampai melewati batas kebutuhan ramping rate up dan down keseluruhan pembangkit maupun pembangkit respon cepat AGC. Analisis saat terjadi kondisi outage pembangkit eksisting terbesar menunjukkan adanya penurunan kemampuan ramping rate up dan peningkatan kemampuan ramping rate down signifikan pada waktu beban puncak sekitar jam 18:00 terutama pada tingkat penetrasi VRE tinggi tahun 2034. Peningkatan penetrasi VRE berdampak pada penurunan biaya pokok pembangkitan (BPP) dalam Rupiah/kWH. Rata – rata penurunan BPP pada skenario RE Base sebesar 1,39% saat weekday dan 1,23% saat weekend sedangkan pada skenario ARED Base sebesar 3,51% saat weekday dan 3,31% saat weekend. Proyeksi penetrasi VRE yang ada di RUPTL masih dapat ditingkatkan hingga 30,87% atau 20547 MW saat weekday dan 18470 MW atau 45,22% saat weekend.
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To achieve its carbon neutrality target by 2060, Indonesia plans to expand its renewable energy generation capacity, as outlined in the 2025–2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). The RUPTL includes significant additions of wind and solar power generation, both of which are classified as Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). Due to the intermittent and uncertain nature of VRE generation, its integration affects power system operation, particularly the Unit Commitment (UC) and Economic Dispatch (ED) scheduling processes. Consequently, integrating large-scale VRE into the Java–Madura–Bali (JAMALI) power system presents a major operational challenge. Therefore, an assessment of the impact of VRE penetration on the operational flexibility of the JAMALI power system is required. This study investigates the effects of VRE capacity expansion, based on the 2025–2034 RUPTL projections, on the net load profile and system ramping rate requirements of the JAMALI power system over the 2025–2034 period. A Mixed Integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP)-based optimization approach was employed to solve the UC–ED problem under three scenarios: the existing system without additional VRE capacity, the Renewable Energy (RE) Base scenario, and the Accelerated Renewable Energy Development (ARED) Base scenario, as projected in the RUPTL. The UC–ED simulation results indicate that increasing VRE penetration from 2025 to 2034 reduces the system net load while increasing load ramping rate requirements. However, the reduction in net load does not reach the Technical Minimum Loading (TML) limits of conventional generating units, and the increased ramping requirements remain within the aggregate upward and downward ramping capabilities of both the entire generation fleet and the Automatic Generation Control (AGC)-responsive units. Furthermore, contingency analysis considering the outage of the largest existing generating unit reveals a significant reduction in upward ramping capability and a substantial increase in downward ramping capability during the evening peak load period (approximately 18:00), particularly under the high VRE penetration scenario in 2034. Increased VRE penetration also reduces the average generation cost (BPP) by 1.39% on weekdays and 1.23% on weekends in RE Base scenario. In ARED scneario reduces by 3.51% on weekdays and 3.31% on weekends. Moreover, the projected VRE capacity specified in the RUPTL can still be increased by up to 30.87% or 20,547 MW on weekdays and 45.22% or 18,470 MW on weekends while maintaining acceptable system operational flexibility.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Variable Renewable Energy, net load, TML, DMN, ramping rate, MIQP |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK1007 Electric power systems control |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Physics Engineering > 30101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Prayogo Kukuh Rindiarto |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Aug 2026 03:25 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Aug 2026 03:25 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143907 |
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