Analisa Kelayakan Investasi Ruas Jalan Tol Palembang - Indralaya

Adhitya, Erza (2026) Analisa Kelayakan Investasi Ruas Jalan Tol Palembang - Indralaya. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pembangunan Jalan Tol Palembang – Simpang Indralaya sepanjang 21,93 km merupakan bagian dari jaringan Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera (JTTS) yang ditugaskan oleh Pemerintah Republik Indonesia kepada PT Hutama Karya (Persero) melalui Peraturan Presiden No. 131 Tahun 2022. Secara ekonomi, proyek ini memberikan manfaat besar terhadap konektivitas dan penurunan biaya logistik di Sumatera Selatan, namun secara finansial tergolong marjinal (unfeasible). Pada masa operasional 2017–2024, realisasi volume lalu lintas harian rata-rata (LHR) baru mencapai 26% hingga 45% dari target business plan, sehingga diperlukan evaluasi dan restrukturisasi skema pembiayaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kelayakan finansial eksisting serta mengevaluasi beberapa alternatif skema pembiayaan—meliputi Skema Tarif (Base Case), Pembayaran Berkala Berbasis Layanan (PBBL), Viability Gap Funding (VGF 30%), serta Divestasi Aset (49%, 51%, dan 100%)—guna menentukan skema investasi yang paling optimal dari kacamata investor maupun korporasi. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis kelayakan investasi dengan kriteria Capital Budgeting yang mencakup Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), dan Payback Period (PP). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pada kondisi eksisting (Skema Tarif), proyek menghasilkan IRR sebesar 10,98%, NPV sebesar Rp1,37 Triliun, dan Payback Period selama 16 tahun. Di antara seluruh alternatif yang diuji, Skema Dukungan Konstruksi / Viability Gap Funding (VGF) 30% terpilih sebagai skema pembiayaan terbaik secara standalone project. Skema VGF 30% mampu mendongkrak kelayakan finansial secara signifikan dengan meningkatkan IRR menjadi 12,41% (di atas WACC/bunga pinjaman 9,5%), meningkatkan NPV menjadi Rp2,01 Triliun, serta mempercepat Payback Period menjadi 14 tahun. Sebaliknya, Skema PBBL dengan durasi jaminan pengembalian 15 tahun dinilai tidak layak karena menghasilkan NPV negatif (Rp-635,43 Miliar) dan IRR merosot ke 4,17%. Sementara itu, opsi Divestasi menunjukkan sensitivitas linier negatif terhadap porsi pelepasan saham, di mana Divestasi 100% menghasilkan kinerja finansial proyek terburuk dengan IRR 3,21% dan NPV Rp-991,02 Miliar. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan penerapan skema VGF 30% kepada pemerintah untuk memitigasi risiko ketidaktercapaian lalu lintas, serta menyarankan opsi divestasi minoritas hanya sebagai alternatif sekunder untuk pemenuhan likuiditas korporasi secara terbatas.
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The construction of the Palembang – Simpang Indralaya Toll Road, which is 21.93 km long, is part of the Trans-Sumatra Toll Road network (JTTS) given to PT Hutama Karya (Persero) by the Indonesian Government through Presidential Regulation No. 131 of 2022. Economically, this project brings major benefits for connectivity and cuts logistics costs in South Sumatra, but financially, it’s still pretty tight (unfeasible). During the 2017–2024 operational period, the average daily traffic volume (LHR) only hit 26% to 45% of the business plan target, so some evaluation and restructuring of the financing scheme are needed. This study aims to analyze the financial feasibility of the existing setup and evaluate several alternative financing schemes—including the Tariff Scheme (Base Case), Periodic Service-Based Payment (PBBL), Viability Gap Funding (VGF 30%), and Asset Divestment (49%, 51%, and 100%)—to determine the most optimal investment scheme from both investor and corporate perspectives. The method used is investment feasibility analysis based on Capital Budgeting criteria, which includes Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP). The analysis results show that under the existing condition (Tariff Scheme), the project generates an IRR of 10.98%, an NPV of IDR 1.37 trillion, and a payback period of 16 years. Among all the alternatives tested, the Construction Support / Viability Gap Funding (VGF) 30% scheme was chosen as the best standalone financing scheme. The 30% VGF scheme can significantly boost financial feasibility by raising the IRR to 12.41% (above the WACC/loan interest of 9.5%), increasing the NPV to IDR 2.01 trillion, and shortening the payback period to 14 years. On the other hand, the PBBL scheme with a 15-year repayment guarantee is considered unfeasible because it results in a negative NPV (IDR -635.43 billion) and IRR drops to 4.17%. Meanwhile, the divestment option shows a negative linear sensitivity to the share release portion, where a 100% divestment leads to the worst financial performance of the project with an IRR of 3.21% and an NPV of IDR -991.02 billion. This research recommends the government implement a 30% VGF scheme to mitigate the risk of traffic shortfall, and suggests minority divestment options only as a secondary alternative for limited corporate liquidity needs.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Trans Sumatra Toll Road, Investment Feasibility, Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera, Kelayakan Investasi
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.24 Feasibility studies. Feasibility appraisals
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Civil Engineering > 22101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Erza Adhitya
Date Deposited:	08 Aug 2026 04:17
Last Modified:	08 Aug 2026 04:17
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/144153

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