Peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat domestik di bandara Soekarno-Hatta pada masa pandemi Covid-19 menggunakan model intervensi fungsi step

Zahra, Jingga Saviratus (2022) Peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat domestik di bandara Soekarno-Hatta pada masa pandemi Covid-19 menggunakan model intervensi fungsi step. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pada era saat ini, transportasi udara sangat lumrah digunakan karena lebih efisien dan dapat mempersingkat waktu. Seiring meningkatnya minat masyarakat dalam menggunakan transportasi udara, berbagai perusahaan penerbangan saling bersaing untuk menerapkan tarif yang kompetitif. Jumlah penumpang penerbangan terkadang mengalami lonjakan maupun penurunan. Penurunan jumlah penumpang pesawat domestik terjadi secara signifikan pada awal tahun 2020 sejak kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia pertama kali ditemukan. Hal ini terjadi di beberapa bandara yang ada di Indonesia, salah satunya bandara terbesar di Indonesia, yaitu Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta. Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat jumlah penumpang pesawat domestik di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta sepanjang tahun 2020 mencapai 8,6 juta orang. Jumlah tersebut menurun sebesar 55,27% dibandingkan dengan tahun 2019 yang mencapai 19,3 juta orang. Dalam penelitian ini, digunakan data jumlah penumpang pesawat domestik di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta dari Januari 2014 sampai Desember 2021 dengan variabel intervensi yang digunakan adalah kejadian saat ditemukannya kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan adalah model intervensi fungsi step. Hasil penelitian diperoleh model intervensi fungsi step terbaik untuk peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta adalah model intervensi dengan orde b, s, r (1, 3, 1) ARIMA (0, 0, \[1, 2, 12\]). Hasil peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat domestik di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta tahun 2022 menunjukkan jumlah penumpang terendah pada bulan Juli dan tertinggi pada bulan Desember.
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In the current era, air transportation is widely used because it is more efficient and saves time. Along with the increasing public interest in using air transportation, various airlines compete to offer competitive fares. The number of passengers on flights may sometimes increase or decrease. The decline in domestic flight passengers occurred significantly in early 2020 following the discovery of the first COVID-19 case in Indonesia. This occurred at several airports in Indonesia, including one of the largest airports in Indonesia, Soekarno-Hatta International Airport. Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik) recorded that the number of domestic flight passengers at Soekarno-Hatta Airport throughout 2020 reached 8.6 million people. This number decreased by 55.27% compared to 2019, when it reached 19.3 million people. In this study, data on domestic flight passengers at Soekarno-Hatta Airport from January 2014 to December 2021 were used, with the intervention variable being the occurrence of the first COVID-19 case in Indonesia. The method used was a step function intervention model. The results showed that the best step function intervention model for forecasting domestic flight passengers at Soekarno-Hatta Airport was the intervention model with orders b, s, r of (1, 3, 1) and ARIMA (0, 0, \[1, 2, 12\]). The forecasting results for domestic flight passengers at Soekarno-Hatta Airport in 2022 showed that the lowest number of passengers occurred in July, while the highest occurred in December.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	519.535 Zah p-1
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Covid-19, Fungsi Step, Model Intervensi, Penumpang Pesawat Domestik, Covid-19, Step Function, Intervention Model, Domestic Flight Passengers
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	magang .
Date Deposited:	05 Oct 2026 04:00
Last Modified:	05 Oct 2026 04:00
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/145247

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