Ramadhani, Ratih Dewi (2017) Penentuan Metode Forecast dan Perencanaan Pengadaan Raw Material di Industri Manufaktur Filter Rokok. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Perencaaan penjualan dan produksi merupakan isu penting dalam industri manufaktur. Hal ini tidak terkecuali industri rokok. Dibutuhkan perencanaan produksi yang baik agar operasional perusahaan dapat berjalan dengan lancar. Salah satu kegiatan yang dilakukan dalam perencanaan produksi yakni peramalan permintaan konsumen. Hasil prediksi permintaan tersebut akan menjadi dasar bagi perusahaan dalam menentukan jumlah unit produk yang perlu diproduksi. Pada penelitian ini digunakan metode forecasting simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s, dan ARIMA untuk melakukan peramalan permintaan konsumen. Berdasarkan metode tersebut akan dipilih metode peramalan yang paling sesuai dengan pola permintaan produk filter rokok dengan menilai persentase error pada forecast. Hasil peramalan permintaan tersebut kemudian akan digunakan sebagai input dalam menentukan jumlah bahan baku atau lot size yang perlu disediakan untuk melakukan proses produksi. Penentuan lot size untuk tiap bahan baku produk filter dilakukan dengan cara optimasi. Dilakukan formulasi model matematis linear programming, kemudian dimodelkan dengan bantuan software optimasi. Output dari model tersebut yakni lot size dalam membeli bahan baku pada suatu supplier dengan moda transportasi tertentu. Hasil akhir dari penentuan lot size yakni dengan membandingkan hasil optimasi dengan skema pengadaan dilihat dari besarnya cost saving yang didapatkan.
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Production planning is one of an important issue in manufacturing industry, including tobacco industry. It is required to have a good production planning in order for a company to operate well operationally. Demand forecasting is a part of production planning activity that being carried out by a company. The result of the forecasted demand will served as one of foundation for a company in determining the number of units to be produced. This thesis use exponential smoothing, Holt’s, and ARIMA as the method of forecasting consumers demand. The forecasting method will be chosen based on the calculation of forecast error. The lesser the value of error, the method will be chosen. The result of the forecasted demand will be used as an input for the company to determine the lot size to procure raw material from suppliers with an alternatives of transportation mode. The calculation on how to determine the number of lot size for each raw material of the product is by using a method of optimization. The first step is to formulate the mathematical model to be developed with an optimization software. The end result of determining lot size is to compare the optimization results with the procurement scenario with regards to cost saving.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | filter rokok, forecasting, ARIMA, optimasi, perencanaan produksi, lot sizing, linear programming, cigarette filter, forecasting, ARIMA, optimization, production planning |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.23 Decision making. Business requirements analysis. T Technology > TS Manufactures > TS167 Costs, Industrial |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Ratih Dewi Ramadhani |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Oct 2017 03:30 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Mar 2019 03:08 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/45219 |
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