Hidayat, Rahmawati Maisaroh (2017) Pemodelan Faktor – Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Age Spesific Fertility Rate (ASFR) Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Provinsi Jawa Timur menduduki peringkat 2 dengan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di Indonesia. Akibat meningkatnya jumlah penduduk Provinsi Jawa Timur tiap tahunnya membuat angka ASFR di Jawa Timur sebesar 37,2 % dan peringkat pertama angka ASFR tertinggi di Pulau Jawa, dimana angka ini sudah melampaui rata-rata angka ASFR nasional sebesar 33,1 % Penelitian ini menggunakan empat variabel yang diduga mempengaruhi ASFR. Data yang digunakan adalah data pada tahun 2015 yang diambil di Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur, dan Badan Kependudukan dan Keluarga Berencana Nasional (BKKBN) perwakilan Jawa Timur. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ASFR, tidak memiliki pola tertentu (nonparametrik) sehingga pendekatan regresi nonparametrik spline dengan titik knot optimum menggunakan metode Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Berdasarkan hasil analisis didapat 3 variabel yang signifikan terhadap model, yakni persentase wanita usia kawin pertama < 20 tahun, persentase wanita tamat SMA, dan laju pertumbuhan penduduk. Model regresi spline menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 69,43%.
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East Java Province is The 2nd rank with the largest population in Indonesia. Every of the increasing population of East Java Province each year to make ASFR in East Java of 37.2% and the first rank of the highest ASFR rate in Java, which figure has exceeded the national ASFR figure of 33.1% This study uses four Variables suspected to affect ASFR. The data used is data in 2015 taken at the Central Bureau of Statistics of East Java Province, and the National Population and Family Planning (BKKBN) representative of East Java. Factors affecting ASFR, have a certain pattern (nonparametric) so that the best modeling is nonparametric regression. With spline approach with optimum knot point obtained with Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) method. Based on the analysis, there are 3 significant variables to the model, namely the percentage percentage of first married women <20 years old, percentage of women of senior high school, and population growth rate. The spline regression model yields a determination coefficient of 69,43%.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ASFR, GCV, Provinsi Jawa Timur, Regresi Nonparametrik, Spline |
| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Rahmawati Maisaroh Hidayat |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jan 2018 03:54 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Mar 2019 07:51 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/47847 |
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