Puspa, Anggi Wahyu (2019) Analisis Kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Menggunakan Regional Frequency Analysis. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Kekeringan merupakan kondisi kekurangan air yang berdampak merugikan bagi kegiatan ekonomi. BNPB per 6 Agustus 2018 menyatakan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur menjadi salah satu dari 8 provinsi yang mengalami kekeringan di Indonesia. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini mengkaji kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur menggunakan Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA). Data curah hujan harian sejak 2005-2017 digunakan dalam analisis. Tahap awal analisis yaitu clustering, menghasilkan 5 region dari 9 stasiun yang digunakan telah homogen berdasarkan discordancy dan heterogeneity test. Setelah itu, setiap region dicari distribusi regional yang sesuai dengan pendekatan l-moment dan didapatkan hasil distribusi PE3 sesuai dengan distribusi kelima region. Distribusi ini digunakan untuk menghitung regional growth curve yang digunakan dalam analisis kekeringan. Analisis return periode kekeringan dengan kondisi curah hujan 40% dari keadaan normal menghasilkan kesimpulan bahwa region 3 (stasiun Fransiskus Xaverius, Gewayantana, dan Mali) merupakan region dengan resiko kekeringan paling tinggi ditunjukkan dari estimasi return periode paling cepat yaitu 2 tahun 4 bulan. Sedangkan analisis kekeringan ekstrim menunjukkan hasil bahwa region 3 dan 5 berpotensi mengalami kekeringan ekstrim hingga 20% normal dalam kurun waktu kurang dari 4 tahun.
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Drought is a condition of water shortage that impact harmful for economic activity. BNPB on August 6th, 2018 said that Nusa Tenggara Timur Province was one of 8 provinces experiencing drought in Indonesia. Therefore this research study drought in Nusa Tenggara Province using Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA). Daily rainfall precipitation since 2005-2007 used in the analysis. The first step of analysis is clustering, gets 5 regions of 9 stations used that have been homogeneous based on discordancy and heterogeneity tests. After that, each region sought regional distribution in accordance with the L-moment approach and obtained PE3 distribution as the fitted one for the 5 regions. This distribution is used to calculate the regional growth curve used in the drought analysis. The drought return period analysis with 40% of normal rainfall condition concluded that region 3 (Fransiskus Xaverius, Gewayantana, and Mali stations) is the region with the highest drought risk, indicated by the fastest resturn periode estimate of 2 years 4 months. While extreme drought analysis shows that region 3 and 5 have the potential to experience extreme drought up to 20% normal in less than 4 years.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.53 Pus a-1 2018 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Curah Hujan, Kekeringan, RFA, Return Periode |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.55 Cluster analysis S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) > S600.7.R35 Rain and rainfall |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Anggi Wahyu Puspa |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Oct 2021 02:45 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Oct 2021 02:45 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/61483 |
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