Inflation Predictor Prototype Based On System Dynamics Simulation Approach For East Java Province

Nabilah Putri, Khansa (2022) Inflation Predictor Prototype Based On System Dynamics Simulation Approach For East Java Province. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Inflation is an important instrument for economic development, both in planning and evaluation stage as one of the macroeconomic indicators. The stability of national inflation is formed from regional inflation stability. The government of East Java, especially the former governor Dr. H. Soekarwo, S.H, M.Hum, feels the need of inflation prediction value on this matter. Thus far, there is no inflation predictor available to assist governments in making decisions and policies. The predicted results on East Java inflation are expected to be an input for the government in considering policy making, as well as input for business people. In this research, the prototype of East Java inflation prediction model has been built using core inflation components and non core inflation. The model is equipped with an interface to make it user friendly. The model built used the thirty inflation commodities approach which are the biggest contributor to East Java inflation rate. Variables captured according to the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) in this model are inflation targets, public expectations, and commodity output gaps. The model has passed five validation mechanism for system dynamics model, one of them is the behavior test which is presented in MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). Based on the results of the simulations conducted, MAPE of 8,31% was obtained for the treatment of balanced commodity weights and 7,75% for the treatment of subjective weights.
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Inflasi adalah instrumen penting untuk pembangunan ekonomi, baik dalam tahap perencanaan dan evaluasi sebagai salah satu indikator ekonomi makro. Stabilitas inflasi nasional dibentuk dari stabilitas inflasi regional. Pemerintah Jawa Timur, terutama mantan gubernur Dr. H. Soekarwo, S.H, M.Hum, merasakan perlunya nilai prediksi inflasi mengenai hal ini. Sejauh ini, tidak ada alat prediksi inflasi yang tersedia untuk membantu pemerintah dalam membuat keputusan dan kebijakan. Hasil prediksi inflasi Jawa Timur diharapkan menjadi input bagi pemerintah dalam mempertimbangkan pembuatan kebijakan, serta input bagi pelaku bisnis. Dalam penelitian ini, prototipe model prediksi inflasi Jawa Timur telah dibangun menggunakan komponen inflasi inti dan inflasi non inti. Model ini dilengkapi dengan antarmuka untuk membuatnya lebih ramah pengguna. Model yang dibangun menggunakan pendekatan komoditas tiga puluh inflasi yang merupakan kontributor terbesar tingkat inflasi Jawa Timur. Variabel yang ditangkap berdasarkan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) dalam model ini adalah target inflasi, ekspektasi publik, dan kesenjangan output komoditas. Model tersebut telah melewati lima mekanisme validasi untuk model dinamika sistem, salah satunya adalah tes perilaku yang disajikan dalam MAPE (Mean Absolute Perscentage Error). Berdasarkan hasil simulasi yang dilakukan, MAPE sebesar 8,31% diperoleh untuk perlakuan bobot komoditas seimbang dan 7,75% untuk perlakuan bobot subyektif.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	inflation predictor, system dynamics, Inflation Targeting Framework
Subjects:	A General Works > AS Academies and learned societies (General) A General Works > AS Academies and learned societies (General) Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	NABILAH PUTRI KHANSA
Date Deposited:	04 Sep 2025 05:46
Last Modified:	04 Sep 2025 05:46
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/65781

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