Early Warning Ketahanan Pangan Beras di Jawa Timur dengan Menggunakan Simulasi Sistem Dinamik

Al Juned, Vina Vahlevi (2019) Early Warning Ketahanan Pangan Beras di Jawa Timur dengan Menggunakan Simulasi Sistem Dinamik. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Beras merupakan makanan pokok masyarakat Indonesia dan Indonesia merupakan negara yang memiliki penduduk terpadat keempat di dunia. Jawa Timur adalah salah satu provinsi di Indonesia yang merupakan penghasil beras terbesar di Indonesia dan banyak daerah lain seperti Papua, NTT, Kalimantan, Sumatra, DKI dan Yogyakarta bergantung pada pasokan beras dari Jawa Timur. Kontribusi Jawa Timur untuk cadangan beras nasional mencapai 17,1% per tahunnya. Yang menjadi concern adalah penurunan jumlah lahan akibat adanya reduksi lahan tiap tahunnya sangat berpengaruh pada jumlah produksi yang juga menurun sedangkan konsumsi beras tiap tahun terus meningkat. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan simulasi sistem dinamik (SD) untuk mengestimasikan kontribusi beras Jawa Timur untuk ketahanan pangan Indonesia. Model simulasi sistem dinamik adalah untuk menguji interaksi dan proses umpan balik antara produksi per tahun, area tanam padi, konsumsi per tahun, subsektor pertanian dan subsektor populasi. Mengelola pengembangan pertanian, tes struktural dan perilaku dan pengujian statistik dilakukan untuk mengevaluasi dan validasi kerja model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa output simulasi mewakili sistem nyata. Tiga skenario tambahan disimulasikan.
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Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia that has the four largest population in the world. East Java is one of the largest rice producing centres in Indonesia and many other regions such as Papua, Kalimantan, NTT, Sumatra, DKI, and Yogyakarta depend on its supply of rice. The contribution of rice from East Java to other provinces is 17.1% and there is a decline every year while the consumption of rice is increasing every year. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system dynamic (SD) model for estimation of East Java's rice contributions to Indonesian food security. An integrated system dynamics simulation model was developed using a system dynamics modelling approach to examine the interaction and feedback processes between the production per year, paddy planting area, consumption per year, agricultural production sub-sectors and population subsectors. Managing the agricultural development, providing the structural and behavioural pattern tests, and doing the statistical test to evaluate and validate the performance of the model. The results showed that the simulated outputs represent the real system. Three additional scenarios were simulated. (scenario 1) expanding rice field area, (scenario 2) improving the intensification and there should be additional support to farmers through provision of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and pesticides and be given sufficient training to best apply these input and (Scenario 3) increasing the amount of infrastructure in order to distribute more supply.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Food Security, Early Warning Model, Rice Stock and Demand, System Dyanimcs
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Vina Vahlevi Al Juned
Date Deposited:	22 Jul 2026 04:01
Last Modified:	22 Jul 2026 04:01
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/67178

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