Peramalan Volume dan Nilai Ekspor Minyak Sawit di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins

Rahmania, Yuelanti Krista (2019) Peramalan Volume dan Nilai Ekspor Minyak Sawit di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia merupakan negara berkembang dengan produksi minyak sawit terbesar di seluruh dunia, tidak heran jika permintaan minyak sawit pada perdagangan ekspor khususnya dari tahun ke tahun selalu naik. Namun ketika volume dan nilai ekspor minyak sawit yang selalu bertambah dari tahun ke tahun jika dilihat dari perkembangan produksi minyak sawit di Indonesia sendiri belum direncanakan secara matang, untuk itu dari pemerintah sendiri menginisiasi adanya perluasan perkebunan kelapa sawit di daerah – daerah seluruh Indonesia. Namun inisiasi tersebut belum didorong adanya strategi yang dapat mewujudkan usulan dari pemerintah. Perlu adanya nilai dugaan jumlah volume dan nilai ekspor minyak sawit, yang nantinya akan digunakan sebagai ukuran dalam menentukan luas area perkebunan di setiap daerah di Indonesia dan kebijakan dalam segi pembangunan yang berkelanjuan bagi produksi minyak sawit sendiri ditahun depan. Data yang digunakan dimulai dari data volume dan nilai ekspor minyak sawit periode Januari 2013 hingga Desember 2018 yang akan digunakan untuk meramalkan voume dan nilai ekpor minyak sawit tahun 2019 di Indonesia. Analisis yang tepat digunakan ialah analisis time series dengan metode ARIMA Box – Jenkins karena dapat meramalkan nilai dugaan satu tahun kedepan. Berdasarkan analisis yang dilakukan maka diperoleh model time series terbaik volume dan nilai ekspor minyak sawit yaitu ARIMA $(0,1,1)$ dan ARIMA $(2,1,0)$. Dimana hasil ramalan volume ekspor minyak sawit yang konstan disetiap bulan sedangkan ramalan nilai ekspor minyak sawit yang tertinggi pada bulan Januari.
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Along with the development of a country, the level of the economy is also developed. As a result, there is also increasing demand - the demand for an item but the amount of goods available is not proportional to the demand that appears. Indonesia itself is a developing country with the largest palm oil production in the world, no wonder the demand for palm oil in the export trade, especially from year to year, always rises. However, when the volume and export value of palm oil are always increasing from year to year when viewed from the development of palm oil production in Indonesia itself has not been carefully planned, for this reason, from the government itself initiates the expansion of oil palm plantations in regions throughout Indonesia. However, the initiation has not been driven by a strategy that can bring about proposals from the government. There is a need to estimate the amount of volume and value of exports of palm oil, which will be used as a measure in determining the area of plantations in each region in Indonesia and policies in terms of sustainable development for palm oil production next year. The data used starts from data on the volume and value of palm oil exports from January 2013 to December 2018 which will be used to forecast the volume and export value of palm oil in 2019 in Indonesia. The right analysis used is time series analysis with the ARIMA Box - Jenkins method because it can predict the estimated value for the next year. Based on the analysis carried out, the best time series model was obtained for the volume and export value of palm oil, namely ARIMA $(0,1,1)$ and ARIMA $(2,1,0)$. Where the results of the forecast volume of exports of palm oil are constant every month while the forecast value of exports of palm oil is the highest in January.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, Ekspor, Minyak Sawit, Perkebunan
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > Mechanical Industrial Engineering (D4)
Depositing User:	Rahmania Yuelanti Krista
Date Deposited:	14 Aug 2026 06:30
Last Modified:	14 Aug 2026 06:30
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/68367

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