Ramadhan, Annisa (2016) Peramalan Penjualan Listrik (KWH) pada Sektor Industri PT PLN (Persero) Distribusi Jawa Timur Area Surabaya Barat dengan Menggunakan Exponential Smoothing - Forecasting Electricity Sales ( KWH ) Industrial Sector PT PLN ( Persero )Distribution of East Java, Surabaya West Area Using Exponential Smoothing. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pendapatan PT PLN (Persero) berkontribusi terhadap
penerimaan negara. Salah sektor pelangganya yaitu Industri.
Sektor Industri memberikan kontribusi pendapatan paling tinggi.
Meningkatnya pelanggan sektor industri di wilayah kerja PT PLN
(Persero) area Surabaya Barat mengakibatkan KWH semakin
tinggi. Permasalahan yang muncul KHW menjadi berfluktasi
yang berakibat pendapatan PLN juga berfluktasi. Untuk
mengatasi permasalahan ini, dibutuhkan model peramalan KWH.
Pada penelitian ini dilakukan analisis ramalan terhadap KWH
sektor Industri golongan tarif 3.500 VA - 14 KVA , diatas 14
KVA - 200 KVA , diatas 200 KVA 0 30.000 KVA , diatas 30.000
KVA dengan metode Exponential Smoothing. Hasil analisis
didapatkan golongan tarif yang memiliki penjualan KWH
tertinggi adalah golongan tarif diatas 200KVA-KVA dan
terendah yaitu golongan tarif 3500VA-14KVA. Pada tahun 2014
terjadi peningkatan penjualan KWH. Namun pada tahun 2015
terjadi penurunan pada setiap golongan tarif listrik. Model
peramalan KWH terbaik golongan tarif 3500VA hingga 14KVA
yaitu t t t F 0,117364 (1 0,117364)F 1 . Model
peramalan KWH golongan tarif diatas 14KVA-200KVA yaitu
1 1 1 1 0,9 1 0,9 0,4 (1 0,4) t m t t t t t t F X S b S S b
Model peramalan KWH diatas 200KVA-30.000KVA yaitu
1 1 1 1 Model peramalan KWH golongan diatas 30.000KVA yaitu
1 1 1 1
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Revenue PT PLN (Persero) contribute to Indonesian revenues.
One of their customer sectors namely Industry. Industrial sector
contributes the highest revenue. Increased industrial sector
customers in the region of PT PLN (Persero) West Surabaya area
resulted in higher KWH. To overcome this problem, it needs
forecasting models KWH. In this research, the analysis forecasts
the industry sector groups KWH rate of 3,500 VA - 14 KVA,
above 14 KVA - 200 KVA, 200 KVA above 0 to 30,000 KVA, over
30,000 KVA with Exponential Smoothing method. The analysis
we fare class that has the highest sales KWH is above 200kVAclass
fare and the lowest KVA namely class 3500VA-14KVA
rates. In 2014 there was an increase of sales KWH. But in 2015
there is a decrease in electricity rates of each group. Forecasting
models KWH above 3500VA until 14KVA is
t t t F 0,117364 (1 0,117364)F 1 .Forecasting models
KWH above 14KVA until 200KVA is
1 1 1 1 0,9 1 0,9 0,4 (1 0,4) t m t t t t t t F X S b S S b
.Forecasting models KWH above 200kVA-30.000KVA is
1 1 1 1 0,9 1 0,9 0,2 (1 0,2) t m t t t t t t F X S b S S b
.Forecasting models KWH group above 30.000KVA is
1 1 1 1
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.535 Ram p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Exponential Smoothing, Golongan Tarif, KWH, Sektor Industri, Exponential Smoothing, Group Rates, Industrial Sector, KWH. |
| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174 Technological forecasting |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics |
| Depositing User: | ansi aflacha |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Dec 2019 08:30 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Dec 2019 08:30 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/72443 |
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