Saputra, Brian Nugraha Dwi (2021) Peramalan Jumlah Kejadian Gempa Di Indonesia Dengan Menggunakan Model Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
Preview |
Text
06111440000078-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Indonesia merupakan negara yang berada di pertemuan tiga lempeng utama di dunia yaitu lempeng eurasia, pasifik dan indoaustralia sehingga menyebabkan indonesia sebagai salah satu negara yang sering terjadi gempa bumi. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan penelitian terhadap data jumlah kejadian gempa di indonesia untuk meramalkan jumlah gempa yang akan terjadi di waktu mendatang. Model yang dilakukan untuk meramalkan jumlah kejadian gempa adalah model GSTAR dengan bobot seragam dan bobot invers jarak. Pemodelan dilakukan pada lima wilayah di indonesia yang memiliki jumlah kejadian gempa terbanyak diantaranya yaitu Jawa Tengah, Jawa Timur, Bali, NTB dan NTT. Berdasarkan hasil analisis yang telah dilakukan diperoleh bahwa model terbaik serta tahap yang diperlukan untuk meramalkan jumlah kejadian gempa adalah model GSTAR(1) dengan bobot invers jarak. Model yang terbaik dipilih berdasarkan nilai RMSE yang terkecil yaitu sebesar 5,66 dan terdapat pada model GSTAR(1) dengan bobot invers jarak.
==================================================================================================
Indonesia is located in between three main world plates which are eurasia, pacific and indoaustralia that caused indonesia as one of the country that has the most earthquakes. Therefore, its necessary to do a research based on the earthquake data to forecasts incoming earthquakes in the future. Model that is used to forecast the earthquake is GSTAR model with even and distance inverse weight. Modelling is applied to 5 places in indonesia that has the most earthquakes which are Middle Java, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara. Based on the result of the analysis, the best model to forecast the incoming earthquake is the GSTAR(1) model with distance inverse weight followed with the required steps. This model is chosen based on the model that has the minimum value of RMSE which is GSTAR(1) model with distance inverse weight with 5,66 RMSE value.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | gempa bumi, analisa time series, gstar, earthquake, time series analysis, gstar |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Brian Nugraha Dwi Saputra |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Mar 2021 12:57 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Nov 2024 02:25 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/84085 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |