Sensitivitas Perubahan Kriteria Investasi Proyek Jalan Tol Probolinggo - Banyuwangi

Aimbiarto, Aryono (2021) Sensitivitas Perubahan Kriteria Investasi Proyek Jalan Tol Probolinggo - Banyuwangi. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Infrastruktur jalan merupakan salah satu sarana penunjang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pengembangan potensi daerah. Kebutuhan modal untuk pembangunan infrastruktur jalan menjadi kendala pemerintah. Untuk mengatasinya, pemerintah bekerjasama dengan investor swasta dengan skema Build - Operate - Transfer atau bangun – guna – serah. Risiko yang harus dihadapi dan paling berpengaruh terhadap perubahan kriteria investasi dari sudut pandang swasta adalah peningkatan biaya investasi inisial, keterlambatan pembebasan lahan dan potensi tidak tercapainya target pendapatan.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor yang paling berpengaruh terhadap perubahan nilai Net Present Value (NPV) dan Internal Rate of Return (IRR) di investasi jalan tol Probolinggo - Banyuwangi, dan mengetahui batas-batas yang membuat kriteria investasi proyek berubah. Dengan analisis sensitivitas, dilakukan simulasi peningkatan biaya investasi inisial, keterlambatan pembebasan lahan, dan tidak tercapainya target pendapatan tol.
Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa tidak tercapainya target pendapatan tol merupakan faktor yang paling berpengaruh terhadap perubahan keputusan investasi. Setiap 1% target pendapatan tol yang tidak tercapai maka terjadi penurunan NPV sebesar Rp 875.625.112.233 dan penurunan IRR sebesar 0,86%. Sedangkan batas yang membuat keputusan kriteria investasi berubah adalah kenaikan biaya investasi inisial sebesar 96,02%, keterlambatan pembebasan lahan selama 15 tahun dan tidak tercapainya pendapatan sebesar 42,54%. Dari 144 kondisi, terdapat 60 kemungkinan terjadinya perubahan keputusan investasi. Jika kondisi-kondisi tersebut terjadi, investor swasta perlu mengajukan penambahan masa konsesi.
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Road infrastructure is one of the most that support economic growth and regional potential development. The need for capital for the construction of road infrastructure is an obstacle for the government. The solution is the goverment engage private sector for make an investment with Build - Operate - Transfer scheme. The risk that must be faced and the most impact on changes in investment criteria from private perspective are the increase in initial investment cost, delays in land acquisition and the potential for not achieving target revenue.
This study aims to determine the factors that most influence changes in the Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in the Probolinggo - Banyuwangi toll road investment, and to determine the limits that make the project investment criteria change. With sensitivity analysis, simulations are carried out for increasing initial investment costs, delays in land acquisition, and not achieving the toll revenue target.
The results of the sensitivity analysis show that the non-achievement of the toll revenue target is the most influential factor in changing investment decisions. For every 1% of the toll revenue target that is not achieved, there will be a decrease in NPV of Rp. 875,625,112,233 and a decrease in IRR of 0.86%. While the limits that make the decision on investment criteria change are the increase in initial investment costs by 96.02%, delays in land acquisition for 15 years and not achieving income by 42.54%. From the 144 conditions, there are 60 possible changes in investment decisions. If these conditions occur, private investors need to apply for an additional concession period.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	analisis sensitivitas, Build- Operate - Transfer, investasi, jalan tol, investment, sensitivity analysis, toll road
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE355.4 Toll roads H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Technology Management > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Aryono Aimbiarto
Date Deposited:	19 Sep 2021 16:47
Last Modified:	19 Sep 2021 16:47
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/92011

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