Peramalan Pemakaian Ekspor Batu Bara Di Indonesia: Sebuah Studi Replikasi

Luthfi, Dhafira Pratama (2023) Peramalan Pemakaian Ekspor Batu Bara Di Indonesia: Sebuah Studi Replikasi. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Forecasting adalah suatu metode perencanaan dan pengendalian produksi untuk menghadapi ketidakpastian yang terjadi di masa mendatang. Khususnya untuk memprediksi permintaan produk di masa depan. Beberapa penelitian forecasting dilakukan untuk memprediksi penjualan dimasa mendatang. Salah satu metode yang dipilih adalah metode time series. Metode time series atau deret waktu adalah metode prediksi yang didasarkan pada data-data masa lampau suatu variabel dan atau kesalahan di masa lalu yang berurutan menurut waktu, misal hari, minggu, bulan, dan tahun. Adapun algoritma yang sering digunakan untuk metode time series adalah algoritma moving average.
Hampir semua barang yang dijual memerlukan metode forecasting untuk meminimalisir kesalahan taksiran kebutuhan pelanggan. Tak terkecuali industri besar seperti ekspor batu bara. Batu bara merupakan salah satu sumber daya alam yang digunakan di berbagai macam jenis kebutuhan. Sehingga keberadaannya nyaris dibutuhkan banyak pihak. Namun batu bara merupakan sumber daya alam yang tidak dapat diperbaharui. Suatu saat cadangan batu bara di dunia khususnya di Indonesia akan habis. Oleh karena itu penting untuk mengetahui berapa jumlah batu bara yang diekspor pada periode tertentu agar dapat diprediksi jumlah batu bara yang dijual pada masa mendatang. Hal ini dapat menjadi acuan bagi para ahli untuk menentukan kebijakan mengenai ekspor batu bara seiring menipisnya sumber daya alam tersebut. Prediksi inilah yang akan dihitung berdasarkan metode forecasting. Pada penelitian ini dibahas mengenai prediksi jumlah ekspor batu bara di masa mendatang dengan menggunakan metode time series berdasarkan algoritma moving average dan exponential smoothing.
Hasil akhir yang telah diteliti menunjukan bahwa metode metode peramalan mampu meramal jumlah ekspor batubara di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode Moving average,weight moving average, Exponential Single Holt, Exponential Single winter. dari keempat metode tersebut, metode Exponential Single merupakan metode yang paling akurat yang memiliki MPE 9%, MAE 1.996.391 dan ME 844.547. Bedasarkan hasil tersebut, maka metode Exponential Smoothing Single sangat baik digunakan untuk meramalkan ekspor batu bara di Indonesia.
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Forecasting is a method of planning and controlling production to deal with uncertainties that occur in the future. Especially to predict future product demand. Several forecasting studies have been conducted to predict future sales. One of the methods chosen is the time series method. The time series or time series method is a predictive method based on past data of a variable and or past errors in sequence according to time, for example days, weeks, months, and years. The algorithm that is often used for the time series method is the moving average algorithm.
Almost all goods sold require a forecasting method to minimize errors in estimating customer needs. Large industries such as coal exports are no exception. Coal is one of the natural resources used in various types of needs. So its existence is almost needed by many parties. However, coal is a non-renewable natural resource. One day coal reserves in the world, especially in Indonesia, will run out. Therefore, it is important to know how much coal is exported in a certain period in order to predict the amount of coal sold in the future. This can be a reference for experts to determine policies regarding coal exports in line with the depletion of these natural resources. This prediction will be calculated based on the forecasting method. This study discusses the prediction of the number of coal exports in the future using the time series method based on the moving average and exponential smoothing algorithm.
The final results that have been studied show that forecasting methods are able to predict the amount of coal exports in Indonesia using the Moving average, weight moving average, Exponential Single Holt, Exponential Single winter methods. of the four methods, the Exponential Single method is the most accurate method which has an MPE of 9%, MAE 1,996,391 and ME 844,547. Based on these results, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is very well used to forecast coal exports in Indonesia.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Forcasting, Batu bara, Cadangan Batu bara, Pro dan contra penggunaan batu bara Forecasting, Coal, Coal Reserves, Pros and cons of using coal
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models. T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174 Technological forecasting
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Luthfi dhafira pratama
Date Deposited:	12 Feb 2023 02:51
Last Modified:	12 Feb 2023 02:51
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/96852

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