Pemodelan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Indonesia Tahun 2020 dengan Metode Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated

Putra, I Gusti Made Angga Brahmasia (2023) Pemodelan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Indonesia Tahun 2020 dengan Metode Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Salah satu permasalahan yang sering dihadapi oleh negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia diindikasikan oleh belum tercapainya kesejahteraan sosial. Upaya pemerintah dalam meningkatkan kesejahteraan adalah meningkatkan stabilitas nasional, memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi, meningkatkan iklim investasi, dan menekan angka pengangguran. Indikator yang digunakan mengukur pengangguran yang ada di Indonesia adalah Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT). Pada tahun 2020, TPT di Indonesia pada bulan September yaitu sebesar 7,07 persen. Nilai tersebut mengalami kenaikan sebesar 1,84 persen jika dibandingkan dengan nilai TPT pada bulan September pada tahun 2019. Penelitian ini akan memodelkan TPT di Indonesia tahun 2020 dengan menggunakan regresi nonparametrik spline truncated karena hubungan antara variabel respon dengan kelima variabel prediktor yaitu rata-rata lama sekolah, APK tingkat SMA, laju pertumbuhan PDRB, TPAK dan IPM tidak berpola serta terdapat perubahan pola hubungan di sub interval tertentu. Model regresi nonparametrik spline truncated terbaik didapatkan pada model menggunakan tiga titik knot. Kelima variabel prediktor berpengaruh signifikan terhadap TPT di Indonesia tahun 2020 dan menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 96,92%.
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One of the problems often faced by developing countries, including Indonesia, is indicated by the lack of social welfare. The government's efforts in improving welfare are increasing national stability, spurring economic growth, improving the investment climate, and reducing unemployment. The indicator used to measure unemployment in Indonesia is the Open Unemployment Rate. In 2020, the Open Unemployment Rate in Indonesia in September was 7.07 percent. This value has increased by 1.84 percent when compared to the value of the Open Unemployment Rate in September in 2019. This study will model the Open Unemployment Rate in Indonesia in 2020 using nonparametric spline truncated regression because of the relationship between the response variable and the five predictor variables, namely the average length of schooling, GER at the high school level, GRDP growth rate, labor force participation rate and HDI are not patterned and there are changes in the pattern of relationships in certain sub-intervals. The best nonparametric spline truncated regression model was obtained in the model using three knot points. The five predictor variables have a significant effect on TPT in Indonesia in 2020 and produce a coefficient of determination of 96.92%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Kesejahteraan Sosial, Regresi nonparametrik spline truncated, Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.35 Analysis of variance H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	I Gusti Made Angga Brahmasia Putra
Date Deposited:	24 Feb 2023 04:52
Last Modified:	24 Feb 2023 04:52
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/97685

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