Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Sektor Pariwisata Di Indonesia Menggunakan Analisis Structural Path Analysis Berbasis Matriks Inter-Regional Input-Output

Kumara, Habi Cahya (2021) Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Sektor Pariwisata Di Indonesia Menggunakan Analisis Structural Path Analysis Berbasis Matriks Inter-Regional Input-Output. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Akhir tahun 2019 dunia dikejutkan dengan adanya new emerging infectious disease di China yang disebabkan oleh coronavirus disease (covid-19). WHO menetapkan Covid-19 sebagai pandemi dan mengakibatkan dunia berada dalam keadaan krisis kesehatan serta ancaman resesi ekonomi. Wabah ini menyebar dengan sangat cepat dan telah menginfeksi hampir semua Negara di dunia termasuk Indonesia. Pemerintah mengeluarkan kebijakan pembatasan kegiatan masyarakat untuk belajar, bekerja dan beribadah dari rumah (work from home) dalam upaya memutus mata rantai penyebaran. Disisi lain, pembatasan ini mengakibatkan turunnya permintaan ekonomi secara signifikan. Berdasarkan rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi oleh BPS, Indonesia mengalami resesi di quartal III tahun 2020 dengan sektor transportasi dan pariwista merupakan sektor paling terdampak dengan adanya pandemi ini. Penelitian ini akan menganalisis dampak pandemi covid-19 di Indonesia terhadap sektor pariwisata dan keterkaitannya dengan sektor lain dalam perekonomian Nasional menggunakan
metode analisis backward linkage dan forward linkage. multiplier effect serta structural path analysis (SPA) dengan menggunakan sumber data Inter Regional Input Output (IRIO) Indonesia. Penentuan sensitivitas model SPA ditentukan berdasarkan rentang threshold 0,02% dengan maksimum 8 stage. Berdasarkan analisis model intervensi step function, sampai dengan bulan Desember 2020 Indonesia kehilangan potensi pemasukan pada sektor Pariwisata sebesar 127,22 s/d 163,37 triliun rupiah.
Secara Nasional sektor Hotel dan Restoran menjadi sektor dengan dampak terbesar terhadap pembentukan output sebesar 97.25 s/d 124.84 triliun rupiah. Penurunan output pada sektor tersebut memberikan dampak multiplier cukup tinggi terhadap sektor Makanan dan Minuman sebesar 17.45 s/d 22.4 triliun rupiah dan sektor Perdagangan sebesar 10,47 s/d 13.45 triliun rupiah.
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At the end of 2019 the world was shocked by the new emerging infectious disease in China; the Coronavirus disease (Covid-19). This outbreak is spreading fast and has infected almost all countries including Indonesia, the WHO has designated Covid-19 as a pandemic. The Indonesian government issued a policy of limiting community activities in an effort to break the spread of the virus. This restriction resulted in a significant reduction in economic demand. Based on the release of economic growth data by BPS, Indonesia experienced a recession in the third quarter of 2020 with the transportation and tourism sectors being the sectors most affected by this pandemic.
This study will analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia on the tourism sector and its relationship with other sectors using Backward Linkage, Forward Linkage, Multiplier Effects, and Structural Path Analysis (SPA) methods on Indonesia's Inter-Regional Input Output (IRIO) data. Based on the results of the analysis of the time series model with a confidence interval of 90%, up to December 2020, Indonesia lost potential income in the tourism sector by 127.22 to 163.37 trillion rupiah. The hotel and restaurant sector has the largest impact on the formation of output by 97.25 to 124.84 trillion rupiah. Regionally, the province of Bali and DI Yogyakarta became the provinces with the biggest impact from the decline in tourism due to the composition of the tourism sector in it’s regional economy is equal to 34,8% and 26,5%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Additional Information:	RTSt 519.535 4 Kum d-1 2021
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Covid-19, Inter-Regional Input-Output, Backward Linkage, Forward Linkage, Multiplier Effect, Structural Path Analysis
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.5 Principal components analysis. Factor analysis. Correspondence analysis (Statistics)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	- Davi Wah
Date Deposited:	14 Jun 2023 02:51
Last Modified:	14 Jun 2023 02:51
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/98113

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