PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI BANGKALAN DAN PAMEKASAN DENGAN METODE DISAGREGASI MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN PERAMALAN TIME SERIES (ARIMAX)

SETYAWAN, CANDRA AGUS (2014) PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI BANGKALAN DAN PAMEKASAN DENGAN METODE DISAGREGASI MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN PERAMALAN TIME SERIES (ARIMAX). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meramalkan penjualan sepeda motor di Kabupaten Bangkalan dan Kabupaten Pamekasan. Penjualan sepeda motor tahunan di dua Kabupaten tersebut dipengaruhi oleh PDRB per Kapita. Peramalan untuk penjualan sepeda motor dilakukan berdasarkan jenis sepeda motor. Jenis sepeda motor dibedakan menjadi matic, cub dan sport.Peramalan dilakukan untuk memprediksi penjualan sepeda motor periode bulanan di Kabupaten Bangkalan dan Pamekasan. Karena ada dugaan efek variasi kalender, maka penjualan bulanan didekati dengan metode ARIMAX. Penjualan sepeda motor untuk jenis cub yang cenderung menurun tiap tahunnya dapat menyebabkan hasil ramalan bernilai negatif apabila peramalan dilakukan dengan metode time series biasa, maka dilakukan alternatif lain yaitu dengan peramalan hirarki dengan metode disagregasi. Hasil ramalan yang paling baik menggunakan metode disagregasi adalah penjualan sepeda motor untuk jenis sport di Kabupaten Bangkalan serta penjualan sepeda motor jenis matic, cub dan sport di Kabupaten Pamekasan. Sedangkan peramalan yang paling baik dengan metode ARIMAX adalah ramalan penjualan sepeda motor untuk jenis matic dan cub di Kabupaten Bangkalan. ===================================================================================================== The aim of this research is to forecast sales of motorcycles in Bangkalan and Pamekasan. Annual sales of motorcycles in the two districts affected by GDP per capita. Forecasting for sales of motorcycles based on the type of motorcycle. Types of motorcycles are divided into matic, cub and sports. Forecasting is done to predict the monthly sales of motorcycles period Bangkalan and Pamekasan. Because there are allegations of calendar variation effect, the monthly sales approximated by ARIMAX method. Motorcycle sales for Cub type that tends to decrease each year may result in a negative forecast when forecasting is done by the usual method of time series, then performed another alternative, namely the forecasting hierarchy with disaggregation method. The best prediction results using the method of disaggregation are sales of motorcycle for sport type in Bangkalan and sales of motorcycle for matic type, cub and then sport type in Pamekasan. While the best forecasting with ARIMAX method are the sales forecast for matic type and cub type in Bangkalan.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.535 Set p
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMAX, Cub, Disagregasi, Efek Variasi Kalender, Hirarki, Matic, Sport, Sepeda Motor.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata
Date Deposited: 03 Jan 2017 02:43
Last Modified: 03 Jan 2017 08:03
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/1250

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