PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI BANGKALAN DAN PAMEKASAN DENGAN METODE DISAGREGASI MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN PERAMALAN TIME SERIES (ARIMAX)

SETYAWAN, CANDRA AGUS (2014) PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI BANGKALAN DAN PAMEKASAN DENGAN METODE DISAGREGASI MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN PERAMALAN TIME SERIES (ARIMAX). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk meramalkan penjualan sepeda
motor di Kabupaten Bangkalan dan Kabupaten Pamekasan.
Penjualan sepeda motor tahunan di dua Kabupaten tersebut
dipengaruhi oleh PDRB per Kapita. Peramalan untuk penjualan
sepeda motor dilakukan berdasarkan jenis sepeda motor. Jenis
sepeda motor dibedakan menjadi matic, cub dan sport.Peramalan
dilakukan untuk memprediksi penjualan sepeda motor periode
bulanan di Kabupaten Bangkalan dan Pamekasan. Karena ada
dugaan efek variasi kalender, maka penjualan bulanan didekati
dengan metode ARIMAX. Penjualan sepeda motor untuk jenis cub
yang cenderung menurun tiap tahunnya dapat menyebabkan hasil
ramalan bernilai negatif apabila peramalan dilakukan dengan
metode time series biasa, maka dilakukan alternatif lain yaitu
dengan peramalan hirarki dengan metode disagregasi. Hasil
ramalan yang paling baik menggunakan metode disagregasi
adalah penjualan sepeda motor untuk jenis sport di Kabupaten
Bangkalan serta penjualan sepeda motor jenis matic, cub dan
sport di Kabupaten Pamekasan. Sedangkan peramalan yang
paling baik dengan metode ARIMAX adalah ramalan penjualan
sepeda motor untuk jenis matic dan cub di Kabupaten Bangkalan.

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The aim of this research is to forecast sales of motorcycles in
Bangkalan and Pamekasan. Annual sales of motorcycles in the two
districts affected by GDP per capita. Forecasting for sales of
motorcycles based on the type of motorcycle. Types of motorcycles
are divided into matic, cub and sports. Forecasting is done to
predict the monthly sales of motorcycles period Bangkalan and
Pamekasan. Because there are allegations of calendar variation
effect, the monthly sales approximated by ARIMAX method.
Motorcycle sales for Cub type that tends to decrease each year may
result in a negative forecast when forecasting is done by the usual
method of time series, then performed another alternative, namely
the forecasting hierarchy with disaggregation method. The best
prediction results using the method of disaggregation are sales of
motorcycle for sport type in Bangkalan and sales of motorcycle for
matic type, cub and then sport type in Pamekasan. While the best
forecasting with ARIMAX method are the sales forecast for matic
type and cub type in Bangkalan.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.535 Set p
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMAX, Cub, Disagregasi, Efek Variasi Kalender, Hirarki, Matic, Sport, Sepeda Motor.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science. EDP
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata
Date Deposited:	03 Jan 2017 02:43
Last Modified:	03 Jan 2017 08:03
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/1250

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