Manajemen Risiko Proyek SUTET 275 kV Arun - Sigli Untuk Keberlanjutan RUPTL 2025 - 2034

Violanda, Sylvina (2026) Manajemen Risiko Proyek SUTET 275 kV Arun - Sigli Untuk Keberlanjutan RUPTL 2025 - 2034. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Proyek Saluran Udara Tegangan Ekstra Tinggi (SUTET) 275 kV Arun–Sigli merupakan infrastruktur strategis dalam Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) 2025–2034 untuk memperkuat interkoneksi sistem Sumatera, evakuasi daya pembangkit, dan keandalan pasokan di Aceh. Kompleksitas yang mencakup pengadaan, pembebasan lahan/right of way (ROW), material long-lead, konstruksi, dan perizinan menimbulkan risiko terhadap sasaran waktu, operasional, dan finansial. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprioritaskan risiko dan menelusuri akar penyebabnya, mengukur ketidakpastian durasi dan finansial, serta merumuskan strategi mitigasi operasional. Penelitian menggunakan metode campuran yang memadukan Critical Path Method (CPM) untuk menentukan jalur kritis, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) untuk memprioritaskan risiko melalui Risk Priority Number (RPN), Root Cause Analysis (Diagram Fishbone dan 5-Whys), Traffic Light System (TLS), serta Simulasi Monte Carlo. Parameter durasi (optimistis, most likely, pesimistis) ditetapkan dari Service Level Agreement (SLA). Analisis mengidentifikasi 16 aktivitas jalur kritis dengan Total Float nol; tujuh memiliki RPN tertinggi (80), dan TLS menempatkan sembilan pada zona merah, tujuh pada zona kuning. Akar penyebab mengerucut pada tiga simpul: gerbang pengadaan, pembebasan lahan/ROW dan perizinan, serta rantai konstruksi dan material long-lead. Simulasi Monte Carlo (1.000 iterasi) memberikan median 34,8 bulan (COD September 2028) dan P95 43,5 bulan (COD Juni 2029), sehingga probabilitas pencapaian target RUPTL (Desember 2026) 0,0% dan target unit pengusul (Desember 2027) hanya 5,2%. Biaya unutilized capacity diperkirakan Rp 417,03–646,13 miliar per tahun, atau sekitar Rp 46–54 miliar per bulan pergeseran COD. Strategi mitigasi difokuskan pada pengadaan front -loaded (dokumen tender, HPS, market sounding, dan pemesanan material long-lead sejak dini), pembebasan lahan/ROW dan perizinan paralel melalui satuan tugas khusus, manajemen vendor berbasis Milestone dan metode fast-track pada pekerjaan tower, serta pemantauan terintegrasi (kurva-S dan Earned Value Management). Strategi ini menjadi dasar operasional bagi PLN dalam mengendalikan risiko dan menjaga kredibilitas target penyelesaian demi keberlanjutan RUPTL 2025–2034.
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The 275 kV Arun–Sigli Extra-High Voltage Transmission Line (SUTET) is a strategic infrastructure project under the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025–2034, intended to strengthen the Sumatra system interconnection, power evacuation from generating plants, and supply reliability in Aceh. Its complexity—covering procurement, land acquisition/right of way (ROW), long-lead materials, Construction, and permitting—creates risks to schedule, operational, and financial targets. This study prioritizes risks and traces their root causes, quantifies the uncertainty in duration and finances, and formulates operational mitigation strategies. The research uses a mixed-methods approach combining the Critical Path Method (CPM) to determine the critical path, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to prioritize risks through the Risk Priority Number (RPN), Root Cause Analysis (Fishbone Diagram and 5-Whys), the Traffic Light System (TLS), and Monte Carlo simulation. The duration parameters (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) are set from the ten-stage Service Level Agreement (SLA). The analysis identifies 16 critical-path activities with Zero Total Float; seven share the highest RPN (80), and the TLS places nine in the red zone and seven in the yellow zone. The root causes converge on three nodes: the procurement gate; land acquisition/ROW and permitting; and the Construction and long-lead material chain. Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) gives a median of 34.8 months (COD September 2028) and a P95 of 43.5 months (COD June 2029), leaving a 0.0% probability of meeting the RUPTL target (December 2026) and only 5.2% for the proposing unit's target (December 2027). The unutilized-capacity cost is estimated at IDR 417.03–646.13 billion per year, or about IDR 46–54 billion per month of COD slippage. The mitigation focuses on front -loaded procurement (tender documents, the HPS, market sounding, and advance ordering of long-lead materials), parallel land acquisition/ROW and permitting through a dedicated task force, Milestone-based vendor management and fast-track methods for tower Works, and integrated monitoring (S-curves and Earned Value Management). These strategies give PLN an operational basis for controlling risk and maintaining the credibility of the completion target for the sustainability of RUPTL 2025–2034.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Manajemen risiko proyek, SUTET 275 kVrun–Sigli, CPM, FMEA, Root Cause Analysis, Simulasi Monte Carlo, project risk management; 275 kV SUTET Arun–Sigli; CPM; FMEA; Root Cause Analysis; Monte Carlo simulation
Subjects:	T Technology > TH Building construction > TH438 Construction industry--Management. Project management.
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Sylvina Violanda
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 06:34
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 06:34
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137064

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