Analisis Determinan Arus Perdagangan Internasional Nonmigas di Jawa Timur Tahun 2020-2025 (Pada Pt.Xyz)

Tarizqa, Nadira Laili (2026) Analisis Determinan Arus Perdagangan Internasional Nonmigas di Jawa Timur Tahun 2020-2025 (Pada Pt.Xyz). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perdagangan internasional nonmigas memegang peran strategis dalam menopang perekonomian Jawa Timur, yang tercermin dari pertumbuhan nilai ekspor secara signifikan dari 18,44 miliar USD pada tahun 2020 menjadi 30,39 miliar USD pada tahun 2025. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kinerja operasional PT. XYZ terhadap ekspor, impor, dan neraca perdagangan nonmigas Jawa Timur selama periode 2020 - 2025. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dengan model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) guna menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antar variabel. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder time series kuartalan yang bersumber dari PT. XYZ, BPS Provinsi Jawa Timur, Bank Indonesia, dan Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia. Variabel independen dalam penelitian ini meliputi throughput ekspor, throughput impor, jumlah kunjungan kapal logistik internasional, dwelling time ekspor, dan dwelling time impor, sedangkan inflasi dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS digunakan sebagai variabel kontrol. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada model ekspor, jumlah kunjungan kapal logistik internasional dan dwelling time ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam jangka panjang, sementara dwelling time impor berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Dalam jangka pendek, dwelling time ekspor terbukti berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai ekspor. Pada model impor, tidak ditemukan hubungan kointegrasi jangka panjang, yang mengindikasikan bahwa arus impor lebih dipengaruhi oleh kebutuhan esensial industri domestik daripada oleh efisiensi operasional pelabuhan. Adapun pada model neraca perdagangan, throughput ekspor dan jumlah kunjungan kapal berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan throughput impor dan inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Penelitian ini memberikan bukti empiris bahwa peningkatan konektivitas maritim, pengendalian dwelling time, serta efisiensi throughput ekspor merupakan faktor-faktor determinan utama dalam memperkuat kinerja perdagangan internasional nonmigas Jawa Timur.
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Non-oil and gas international trade plays a strategic role in supporting the economy of East Java, as reflected in the significant growth of export value from USD 18.44 billion in 2020 to USD 30.39 billion in 2025. This study aims to analyze the impact of the operational performance of PT. XYZ on non-oil and gas exports, imports, and the trade balance of East Java during the 2020–2025 period. The method utilized is a quantitative approach with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze short-term and long-term relationships among variables. The data used are quarterly secondary time series data sourced from PT. XYZ, BPS East Java Province, Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia. The independent variables in this study include export throughput, import throughput, number of international logistics ship calls, export dwelling time, and import dwelling time, while inflation and the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar serve as control variables. The research results indicate that in the export model, the number of international logistics ship calls and export dwelling time have a positive and significant effect in the long run, whereas import dwelling time has a negative and significant effect. In the short run, export dwelling time is proven to have a negative and significant effect on export value. In the import model, no long-term cointegration relationship was found, indicating that import flows are driven more by the essential needs of domestic industries than by port operational efficiency. Meanwhile, in the trade balance model, export throughput and the number of ship calls have a positive and significant effect in the long run, whereas import throughput and inflation have a negative and significant effect. This study provides empirical evidence that enhancing maritime connectivity, controlling dwelling time, and improving export throughput efficiency are the main determinant factors in strengthening East Java's non-oil and gas international trade performance.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Perdagangan Internasional Nonmigas, Efisiensi Pelabuhan, Terminal Petikemas, ARDL, Jawa Timur. Non-Oil and Gas International Trade, Port Efficiency, Container Terminals, ARDL, East Java.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB801 Consumer behavior. H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC441 Macroeconomics.
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Developmental Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Nadira Laili Tarizqa
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 04:01
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 04:01
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138211

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